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Problem Set # 1 – Individual Assignment
发布时间：2022-10-17
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Development: Economics
Problem Set # 1 – Individual Assignment
Structural Transformation Training
Objective: Getting to know a few facts of the country you have chosen for your Country Diagnostic Report course and relate them to the content we have covered over the first four lectures.
Instructions: Please complete the following questions. This is an individual problem set. You may consult with your teammates, but at the end you must submit your own written answers, graphs, and analyses. Any questions related to the problem set should be directed to the course assistant. Responses are restricted to the maximum word limit. Any answer that spills beyond this length will not be considered in the marking. Good design of the memo, clear and effective writing, and association with reading material will make it more thought-provoking, easier to absorb (and grade).
For the problem sets and final report of the class you may rely on the following databases, which are regularly updated and available to the public online. For students with data handling skills, we have appended these databases into the Course Dataset, in an effort to try to make things easier for you. If you do not have these skills, you can always consult the information on the web, where they are usually accompanied by the possibility of putting up comparative charts and nice visualizations.
● WB’s World Development Indicators (WB)
● Penn World Tables
● WEF’s Global Competitiveness Index
● WB’s World Governance Indicators
● IMF’s World Economic Outlook
● CID’s Atlas of Economic Complexity
● Reinhart and Rogoff’s Foreign Exchange System data
● Barro-Lee’s Education Indicators
● WB’s Enterprise Surveys
● WB’s Doing Business Indicators
● Economist Intelligence Unit data
● Quality of Government Indicators (QG)
(these datasets apply to all problem sets and final Country Diagnostics in class; they are not meant to be used all on each of the problem sets)
Question 1: History of Population and GDP (15 points)
Plot time series graphs for at least 30 years of data that show:
● Real GDP
● Population
● Real GDP per capita
Plot time series graphs for at least 30 years of data that show:
● Real GDP growth
● Population growth
● Real GDP per capita growth
How do these graphs compare to one another? Have they been accelerating? Decelerating? Are the patterns smooth or volatile? What can you say about the growth trajectory of your country? (word count: 200 max)
Question 2: Demographic Transition (20 points)
Plot time series graphs for as many years of data as possible that show (in parenthesis where to find these variables in the course database or the corresponding online source):
● Fertility rates (fertility variable is denoted as WB_sp_dyn_tfrt_in)
● Mortality rates (mortality is denoted as WB_sp_dyn_amrt)
● Life Expectancy (denoted as QG_wdi_lifexp)
● Education (primary, secondary, and tertiary)
o primary education = QG_wdi_gerp
o secondary education = QG_wdi_gers
o tertiary education = QG_wdi_gert
● Other that you may care for or think it is relevant (from the standpoint of the material we have covered over our first four lectures)
For each variable provide a figure accompanied by a brief comment of what you observe. How is – at present – the demographic window of opportunity for your country? (word count: 200 max)
Question 3: History of Structural Transformation (20 points)
Plot time series graphs for as many years of data as possible (minimum 30 years) that show: You may use WB variables for output and employment in the three sectors
● Share of employment in agriculture
● Share of employment in industry/manufacturing
● Share of employment in services
● Share of GDP in agriculture
● Share of GDP in industry/manufacturing
● Share of GDP in services
How do these graphs compare to one another? Have they been accelerating? Decelerating? Are there recent breaks in the time series? Are there significant instances of volatility? (word count: 200 max)
Question 4: Urbanization (15 points)
How is the urbanization rate and trend in your country with respect to its level of GDP per capita? How does that compare to world trends in urbanization and GDP per capita? (word count: 200 max)
Hint: Prepare a scatter of all countries in terms of urbanization rates and GDP for the latest year available, fit a polynomial curve (or trend line in excel) and locate/highlight your country in that chart.
Question 5: Conclusion (30 points)
What can you conclude from this first cut of the data? What patterns emerge for your country? Does the data suggest something unusual about your country? Given what you now know about the country’s economic performance, its economic structure and its demography, what do you think is the growth question? (word count: 300-500)
