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Applied Econometrics, 2022 Assignment 6

发布时间:2022-10-12

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Applied Econometrics, 2022

Assignment 6

 Multiple Choice

1. In a quasi-experiment:

A) quasi  differences  are  used,  i.e.,  instead  of  ∆Y   you  need  to  use  (Y¯ after   λ × Y¯ before), where 0 < λ < 1.

B) the t-statistic is no longer normally distributed in large samples.

C) the causal effect has to be estimated through quasi maximum likelihood estimation.

D) randomness is introduced by  variations in individual circumstances that make it appear   as if the treatment is randomly assigned.

2. In the case of heterogeneous causal effects, the following is NOT true:

A) in the circumstances in which OLS would normally be consistent (when E(ui|Xi) = 0), the OLS estimator continues to be consistent.

B) OLS estimation using heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors is identical to TSLS.

C) the OLS estimator is properly interpreted as a consistent estimator of the average causal effect in the population being studied.

D) the TSLS estimator in general is not a consistent estimator of the average causal effect      if an individual’s decision to receive treatment depends on the effectiveness of the treatment for that individual.

3. Threats to internal validity of quasi-experiments include:

A) failure of randomization.

B) failure to follow the treatment protocol.

C) attrition.

D) all of the above with some modifications from true randomized controlled experiments.

4. The MSPE for the standardized predictive regression model can be written as:

A) MSPE σ2 + E[(βˆ β1)XOOS . . . + (βˆk  βk)XOOS].

B) MSPE E[(βˆ β1)XOOS . . . + (βˆk  βk)XOOS]2.

1 k

C) MSPE σ2 + E[βˆ1XOOS . . . βˆk XOOS]2.

u 1 k

D) MSPE σ2 + E[(βˆ β1)XOOS . . . + (βˆk  βk)XOOS]2.

5. With panel data, the causal effect:

A) cannot be estimated since correlation does not imply causation.

B) is typically estimated using the probit regression model.

C) can be estimated using the “difference-in-differences” estimator.

D) can be estimated by looking at the difference between the treatment and the control group after the treatment has taken place.

6. In a sharp regression discontinuity design:

A) crossing the threshold influences receipt of the treatment but is not the sole determinant.

B) the population regression line must be linear above and below the threshold.

C) Xi will in general be correlated with ui.

D) receipt of treatment is entirely determined by whether W exceeds the threshold.

7. The Lasso estimator minimizes the following penalized sum of squares:

A) SLasso(bλLasso) = Σn

B) SLasso(bλLasso) = Σn

C) SLasso(bλLasso) = Σn

2 k

j=1

(Yi  b1X1i  ...  bkXki)2 + λLasso k

(Yi b1X1i ... bkXki)2.

b2.

|bj|.

D) SLasso(bλLasso) = Σn (Yi  b1X1i  ...  bkXki)2 + λLasso Σk (b1X1i ... bkXki).

8. The ADL(p, q) model is represented by the following equation:

A) Yt β0 + βpYtp δqXtq ut.

B) Yt β0 + β1Yt1 + . . . βpYtp δq utq.

C) Yt β0 + β1Yt1 + . . . βpYtp δ0Xt δ1Xt1 + . . . δqXtq utq.

D) Yt = β0 + β1Yt1 + . . . + βpYtp + δ1Xt1 + . . . + δqXtq + ut.

9. Stationarity means that the:

A) error terms are not correlated.

B) probability distribution of the time series variable does not change over time.

C) time series has a unit root.

D) forecasts remain within 1.96 standard deviation outside the sample period.

10. To choose the number of lags in either an autoregression or in a time series regression model with multiple predictors, you can use any of the following test statistics with the exception     of the:

A) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test.

B) Akaike Information Criterion.

C) Bayes Information Criterion.

D) F -statistic.


Experiments and Quasi-Experiments

11. (Stock and Watson 13.2) For the following calculations, use the results in the table below. Consider two classrooms, A and B, which have identical values of the regressors, except that:

(a) Classroom A is a small class, and classroom B is a regular-sized class. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the expected difference in average test scores.

(b) Classroom A has a teacher with 6 years of experience, and classroom B has a teacher with 12 years of experience. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the expected difference in average test scores.

(c) Classroom A is a small-sized class with a teacher with 6 years of experience, and class- room B is a regular-sized class with a teacher with 12 years of experience.  Construct      a 95% confidence interval for the expected difference in average test scores. (Hint : the teachers were randomly assigned to the different types of classrooms.)

(d) Why is the intercept missing?

 

Test score

Small class

15.93

 

(4.08)

 

[7.81, 24.06]

Regular-sized class with aide

1.22

 

(3.64)

 

[-6.04, 8.47]

Teacher’s years of experience

0.74

 

(0.35)

 

[0.04,1.45]

School indicator variables?

yes

R¯2

0.22

Number of observations

5766

12. (Stock and Watson  13.4) A new law will increase minimum wages in City A next year but  not in City B, a city much like City A. You collect employment data from a random selected sample of restaurants in cities A and B this year, and you plan to return and collect data at restaurants next year. Let Yit denote the employment level at restaurant i in year t.

(a) Suppose you design your analysis so you sample the same restaurants this year and next year. Explain how you will use the data to estimate the average causal effect of the minimum wage increase on restaurant employment.

(b) Suppose you design your analysis so you sample different, independently selected restau- rants this year and next year. Explain how you will use the data to estimate the average causal effect of the minimum wage increase on restaurant employment.

(c) Which sampling design, using the same restaurants in (a) or using different restaurants   in (b), is likely to yield a more precise estimate of the average causal effect?


Prediction with Many Regressors and Big Data

13. (Stock and Watson 14.2) A researcher is interested in predicting average test scores for elementary schools in Arizona. She collects data on three variables from 200 randomly  chosen Arizona elementary schools: average test scores (TestScore) on a standardized test, the fraction of students who qualify for reduced-priced meals (RPM ), and the average years of teaching experience for the school’s teachers (TExp). After standardizing RPM and TExp and subtracting the sample mean from TestScore, she estimates the following regression:

T e^stScore 48.× RPM + 8.× TExp, SER = 44.0.

Now, a school principal is trying to raise funds so that all her students will receive reduced- price meals; currently, only 40% qualify for reduced-priced meals. Can she use the regression above to estimate the effect of the new policy on test scores? Explain why or why not.

Introduction to Time Series Regression and Forecasting

14. (Stock and Watson 15.1 & 15.7) Consider the AR(1) model Yt β0 + β1Yt1 + ut. Suppose the process is stationary.

(a) Show that E(Yt) = E(Yt1).

(b) Show that E(Yt) = β0/(1  β1).

Now suppose that β0 = 2.5, β1 = 0.7. ut is i.i.d. with E(ut) = 0 and var(ut) = 9. Answer questions (c) to (f):

(c) Compute the mean and variance of Yt. (Hint : Use (a) and (b).)

(d) Compute the first two  autocovariances of  Yt.

(e) Compute the first two  autocorrelations of  Yt.

(f) Suppose Yt = 102.3. Compute Yt+1|t = E(Yt+1|Yt, Yt1, ...).