EAP115 – Model Essay (Extreme Heat)

Introduction

Extreme heat, long recognized as a problem in the scientific community, refers to periods that are much hotter than  usual  for  the time  and  place  where  they  happen  (Casanueva  et  al.,  2019).    Numerous  studies  have associated extreme heat with climate change and adverse effects on society, particularly public health. Horton et  al.  (2016)  claimed  extreme  heat  has  been  blamed  for  more  than  100,000  deaths  worldwide  since  the beginning of the 21st century. Protecting society from heat events is thus a crucial issue as they continue to increase globally. This essay will explain the problematic effect of extreme heat on public health and critically evaluate one potential solution.

Problem

Public health concerns are one of the most serious consequences of extreme heat. Health issues like cramps, heat stroke, and other disorders may be the result. Health risks posed by extreme heat can even be deadly, especially for the vulnerable. Bi et al. (2021) explained that extreme heat can make existing conditions and chronic illnesses worse and increase fatality. This situation could be further worsened by the ongoing increase in  the  severity  of  extreme  heat  in  recent  years.  According  to   the  National  Oceanic  and  Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (2022),since the 1960s, heatwave frequency and severity have been increasing in the United States, where the average number of heatwaves has risen from 2 to 6 per year while the average length of the annual heat wave season has extended from around 20 days to over 70 days. The average length of individual heatwaves increased from 3 to 4 days while the average temperature during heatwaves increased by 0.5℉ to almost 2.5℉ above local averages (NOAA, 2022). Consequently, as Luberand McGeehin (2008) state, extreme heat now causes more deaths in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes combined.

Solution

The development and establishment of  heat-health warning systems  may  mitigate  public  health  problems caused  by  extreme  heat.  According  to  Casanueva  et  al.  (2019),  these  systems  usually  consist  of  weather forecasts, methods to assess the weather-health relation, a system of graded alerts, and the communication of such alerts to both national and local decision makers as well as the general public. More specifically, these systems combine weather forecasting with public health action plans aimed at forewarning hot weather and reducing the health-related harm of heat waves (Casanueva et al., 2019). This works by creating a system of graded alerts, where depending on the severity of the heat, different actions are taken. Heatwave levels are given a grade according to intensity, duration, or a combination of both.  In Europe, for example, after a 2003 heat wave, many European countries began to implement such heat-health warning systems, and have seen positive results, especially in protecting the vulnerable (Casanueva et al., 2019). Matzarakiset al. (2020) found that, in Germany, after the enforcement of heat warning systems, hospital admissions of the elderly dropped significantly, and a decrease in heat-related mortalities was evident.

Evaluation Advantage

The major advantage of the heat-health warning system is the likely benefits-to-costs ratio. Tolooetal. (2013)  analysed  such  a  system  in  Philadelphia  and  found  that   although  the   cost  of  running  the  system   was  approximately $210,000, its benefits could reach up to $468 million due to the number of lives saved. In addition, because heat-health warning systems integrate weather forecasting, systems can give early warnings of extreme  heat far in advance. According to Ebi and Schmier (2015),  heat-health warning systems may provide public  health experts adequate time to include heat risk factors in regional risk management plans. Therefore, heat-  health warning systems can provide early warning of extreme heat at a relatively low cost to protect and manage  a wide range of heat-related health risks.

Disadvantage

The  key  disadvantage  of  the  aforementioned  potential  solution  is  coverage.  Existing  heat  health  warning systems tend to focus on reducing mortality among groups vulnerable to heat, such as those working in confined conditions. In contrast, outdoor workers are less  helped by current systems due to the lack of customized suggestions  relating to specific occupational features  (Morabito et al., 2019). Although some experimental frameworks have been proposed, these systems are still largely unable to monitor and ensure outdoor health and safety in real-time. Vanos, Vecillio, and Kjellstrom (2019) highlighted that many studies can only estimate on-site temperature levels, and often assume the availability of shade for outdoor workers. This assumption has two serious flaws: it underestimates the actual heat experienced, and it does not consider the impact of solar radiation, a crucial part of measuring heat stress (Vanos, Vecillio, and Kjellstrom (2019). Therefore, it seems that current systems are often inadequate for the protection of outdoor workers.

Conclusion

Heat-health warning systems were proposed and evaluated as a potential solution to public health problems stemming from extreme heat. While there are various ways to deal with public health problems caused by extreme  heat,  such  warning systems  may  eventually  prove  more  efficient.  At  present,  the  solution  is  still inadequate to reduce the heat-health risks for outdoor workers. However, this issue will likely be resolved as the system develops and matures. A systematic solution could be the answer as severe and frequent heatwaves increase. Finally, the key is to address and solve climate challenges actively, which will remain a crucial topic of international importance in the future.

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