ESS205 Global Warming and Cyclones 2024

Global warming, characterized by a constant rise in the Earth's mean surface

temperature due to disastrous human intervention, affects almost every form of weather

pattern, including cyclones (Walsh et al., 2016). Tropical storms, known as cyclones,

hurricanes, or typhoons, depending on the area, are severe and directly involve wind with

precipitation. It is, therefore, crucial to comprehend how global warming influences these

storms, intending to determine future climatic conditions and the feasible methods of

alleviating the effects likely to be experienced by vulnerable communities (Camargo & Wing, 2016; Wu et al., 2020). This report examines three critical aspects of the relationship between global warming and cyclones: increases in short-intense precipitation, storm frequency, and intensity variations, as well as the poleward movement of cyclones and their impacts on valuable communities.

Rainfall intensity and wind speeds

"Warming is expected to scale cyclones with emphasis on rains and wind in the future ".

Attributed to regional enhancements in the emission of greenhouse gasses, the average surface

temperatures on Earth are gradually increasing, and thus, the characteristics of cyclone formation and  developing processes are likely to experience varied alterations. Initially, global warming caused an upsurge of the SSTs, which awarded cyclones more energy, indicating that this would result in more powerful cyclones. Pielke et al. (2005) suggested that a slight warming of Surface Sea Temperature could lead to a big boost in cyclonic activity. Other studies reveal that warmer waters are associated    with raising the maximum potential intensity of cyclones. They indicated that cyclones will produce    higher precipitation levels as global temperatures increase in rainfall intensity. This is attributed to the fact that warmer air can support larger quantities of rain in a given period during cyclone conditions. Zhang et al. (2021) provided a comprehensive literature review of the upper ocean's response to tropical cyclones and indicated that continental SSTs are related to the enhancement of rainfall.

Higher temperatures cause higher soil moisture content, thus making cyclones more destructive since they bring about heavy showers that last for a longer period, thus leading to increased floods in the areas affected.

Cyclone wind strength is also predicted to rise with global warming. Based on Singh and

Roxy (2022), focusing on how increased ocean-atmosphere circulation produced by global warming could lead to more intense cyclonic wind in the North Indian Ocean. They said this has been evident from recent cyclones throughout the region, characterized by increased wind speeds, which should increase with rising global temperatures.

Lau et al. (2022) compared cyclone intensity in the USA, Europe, and Asia and looked at the temporal patterns. Their analysis showed that the effect obtained follows the increasing trend of cyclone intensity in areas where the sea surface temperature has greatly elevated. Several studies have also indicated an increased likelihood of cyclones developing because of the rains associated with them being more intense and the wind speeds increasing. In this regard, Pielke et al. (2005) and as global warming continues, only underlines the need for continued geoscientific studies to forecast and adapt to the potentially calamitous impacts of these huge and destructive storms.

Overall Frequency and Intensity of Storms

As for the change in the overall cyclone density and very intense storms, the effects of global warming are ambiguous and can be rather multifaceted. Research shows that there can be a reduction in the intensity or the number of storms on a global scale in the future. Specifically, Lau et al. (2022)  provided a historical analysis of the changes in tropical and extra-tropical cyclone activity in the US,  Europe, and Asia. The change in cyclone occurrences may shift its location. In the same manner, Han et al. (2023) focused on the long-term climate records of the Western North Pacific, and the authors established that cyclone frequency variation over the two millennia may be due to climatic changes other than anthropogenic global warming alone.

As stated above, the relative number of cyclones may remain stable, but the proportion of

these cyclones with high intensity is projected to increase. This is primarily because the open ocean water temperatures are relatively warmer and can create greater energy to form severe storms. Chand et al. (2023) have discussed that the climate in the Pacific is favorable for the development of severe  cyclones, thanks to global warming, as it has been observed that oceanic heat content increases in these cases as well. According to their study, they alleged that storms rated Category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones will increase when the climate warms. Singh and Roxy (2022) also have noted that contractors predict the formation of very intense storms" in the North Indian Ocean as sea surface temperatures continue to warm, supplying cyclonic systems further 'fuel.'  Within this regard, several factors that lead to the intensification of such storms have been pegged on aspects such as the rising   sea surface temperatures and the enhanced moisture content in the atmosphere.

Dan_disaster_preparedness says that the global frequency of tropical cyclones might not

increase, although the frequency of very intense cyclones will increase. This explains why areas with warmer oceans experience greater intensity of storms since the climate conditions permit the formation of stronger hurricanes. This implication is evident from the findings made by Lau et al.

(2022), Singh and Roxy (2022), Chand et al. (2023), and Han et al. (2023), highlighting that global warming is altering the factors of cyclonic disposition, coupled with the importance of better machine models for the prediction of these cyclones and coping strategies to fight these more powerful cyclones.

Poleward Extension and Impact on Vulnerable Populations

Global warming is anticipated to cause a poleward shift in cyclone activity, extending the

zones of maximum intensity to higher latitudes. This shift poses a major challenge to the ability of vulnerable groups such as the poor, disabled and frail, the elderly, and Indigenous people to deal with extreme weather occurrences resiliently.

The first area of concern is the capacity and shallowness prevailing in regions newly exposed to cyclones. For instance, Lau et al. (2022) noted that places such as the northeast of the USA and some parts of Europe experience higher activity in extra-tropical cyclones and need to prepare better with proper building standards or response mechanisms that can address cyclone effects. Poor people who are living in dilapidated structures and cramped social housing are left without significant

financial and human capital to repair or move elsewhere in the aftermath of the disaster.

There are also special needs groups at risk, particularly the elderly and disabled, during

cyclone occurrences due to their disability to move around or access healthcare services. In extreme cold conditions, medical facilities, their supplies, and the delivery ofpersonnel and patients may be  completely disrupted. Singh and Roxy (2022) highlighted the issue of severe cyclical events leading to more pressure on the health systems since the frequent power outages and destruction of medical facilities are worrisome to patients receiving prolonged healthcare services.

The aboriginal people or communities who mostly live in coastal or hard-to-reach regions are also vulnerable to the flu.  Indigenous populations of the Pacific Islands and northern Australia are at  increased vulnerability to cyclones, which threaten their shacks, food sources, and identity, as Joel

Chand, Shenell Joe, and Neyoocha Barney highlighted in their publication of2023.

Cyclones have numerous additional consequences that, regretfully, can be a serious problem for vulnerable populations regarding economic stability.  It takes a long time to rebuild their little

savings from the destroy of cyclone. According to Han et al. (2023), the economic vulnerability status of communities within newly impacted regions is generally poor; thus, the recovery process may last   longer than the recovery time among other affected areas, increasing poverty levels and poverty traps. As a result of global warming is statistically dangerous for the poor, disabled, or aged populations and the indigenous people. This analysis further supports the difficulty these affected groups experience when coping with disaster due to not having the necessary resources and preparedness, decision-makers should address and provide efforts for the specific disaster preparedness and disaster resilience in the recently affected areas.

Global warming will likely lead to changes in cyclones composition and climate

characteristics that would mean higher amounts of rainfall and wind speeds, more intense storms, and cyclonic movement towards both poles. These changes are quite problematic since they bring about    numerous threats, such as extreme weather conditions; these are dangerous to the poor, disabled, the elderly, and the Indigenous people due to their inability to adapt to harsh climatic conditions; adequate infrastructure is usually lacking in their areas. Knowing these interactions is essential in envisioning robust adaptation and mitigation methods that would adequately safeguard members of locally affected communities and prevent surge effects of future cyclones. There are tools for making decisions that are more effective at present; however, policymakers and scientists have to work together to increase the results and guarantee that the people in more vulnerable positions will be protected.