Case Study - Lara Hotel

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Case Study -  Lara Hotel

You have been appointed as the Revenue Management consultant to Lara Hotel on Forecasting and Pricing optimization and inventory distribution matters.

The following information has been provided to enable you to address all requirements that appear on the last page of this case study.

OWNERS BRIEF

Welcome to our hotel. We hope that the following information will provide a clear picture of our current situation and future expectations.

Current Situation

Our competitive set has experienced a steady decline in performance over the Covid years. Post covid a soft economy, along with increased competition from other cities, has begun to erode occupancy, average daily rate, and gross operating profit. Finance and credit have been nearly impossible to obtain as the interest rates are reaching record highs. It was clearly a ‘buyer’s market’, where both Individual and Group clients expect exceptional value at discounted prices. This year started relatively positive and the analysts hope that this is the beginning of an economic sector recovery.

In the absence of available financing, and with dramatic decreases in profits from operations during the last five years, area hotels have been unable to fund refurbishment or capital investment projects, which would add value required to compete with neighboring market areas. Considering that we are a relatively new hotel that might already be, a competitive advantage.

Future outlook

Fortunately, developments in three key areas - the economy, our market area, and our hotel - are all indicating opportunities for improved business performance this year.

Positive Market Area Developments

§ Last year’s government tax incentives have successfully attracted twelve companies to move into the area this year with estimated increase in contract customers of 10,000 per month.

§ The airport authority has announced increased regional jet services through contracts with two  new discounted airline with estimates of up to 15,000 additional passengers per month

§ Following last year’s successful funding vote, the new Civic and Conference Center will open in June with an additional inflow of 25,000 contract customers per month

§ The Tourism Authority and Hotel Association have joined resources to triple the international promotional budget for premium travelers that might result to an increase of 15% compared to last year’s numbers.

PROPERTY DESCRIPTION

Market Profile

§ Newly build (10 years old)

§ Full service

§ 4 Star

§ Servicing business, leisure, tour, contract, large group, and small group segments

§ Very similar footprint, facilities, and services compared to competitors

FACILITIES

§ 200 guest rooms with very similar features and amenities

§ Two restaurants – 100 seats in total with adjoining 50-seat bar lounge section

§ One fitness room with sauna

§ Small pool and outdoor recreational area with a tennis court

SERVICES

§ Car parking (for a fee)

§ Guest laundry and dry cleaning

§ Guest room digital entertainment and Free Wi-Fi

§ Room Service

REFURBISHMENT 

With the exception of general upkeep and maintenance, the hotel facilities are new and do not need any major renovations this year.

RATES

       Choose a city from the provided list (STR Hotel Review) to locate this hotel and establish your BAR rates for the following price fences on a quarterly base by simulating a number of bookings exploring the various BAR that they use for different quarters and time of the week.  Provide a clear explanation in the report on the methodology used in establishing these rates and the various “rules” used to differentiate them. 

Week Days Rates

MAXIMUM DEMAND AND MAXIMUM PRICES

Use as a price limit a 25% increment of your highest BAR rate per quarter and complete the following tables. Assume willingness to pay is distributed uniformly. 

Week Days Rates

AREA OCCUPANCY AND MARKET SEGMENT MIX

 Local area occupancies were higher this year than the previous two years due to the covid impact. However, the market price segment mix and weekday-to-weekend ratios remained similar to prior Covid results. Our Hotel’s market share has been estimated to be around 1.5% of the total rooms available for sale. Weekends include three nights:  Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

DEMAND DATA BY BAR AND QUARTER 2018 - 2023

The following two tables provide the number of rooms occupied by the various price fences. The information is provided on a quarterly basis. Furthermore the data is broken down into weekday demand. Finally the quarters during Covid-19  have been modelled to removed the impact of the pandemic.

CHANNEL DEMAND AND TRANSACTION COSTS 

   Demand per channel is expected to follow the same pattern as last year:    

 The estimated marginal costs for this year are: 

Transaction Costs:

Other marginal costs per room night:

REQUIREMENTS:

The following tasks and reflections on results should be covered at various sections of your report.

1. Explain the methodology used in establishing the various BAR rates and the various “rules” used to differentiate them (5%).

2. Compare industry averages in terms of occupancies and market segment mix for weekdays and weekends for the year ended 2023 and comment on your findings (5%)

3. Forecast anticipated demand for next year on a quarterly base for week and weekend days by using a non-causal forecasting methods (10%).

4. Forecast anticipated demand for next year for each quarter and week and weekend days by using the emsr-b heuristic (10%).

5. Forecast anticipated demand by using the optimal price approach for each segment for week and weekend days based on the current hotel’s market segment mix and 2023 demand figures (10%).

6. Compare the various demand forecasting approaches used and reflect on their key advantages and limitations (5%).

7. Provide suggestions for short (1-3 years) and long-term (5 years) strategies and directions by using quantitative and qualitative data in order to promote rates closer to optimum (10%).

8. Quality of excel spreadsheet in terms of automation, visualisation and user friendliness Presentation of written work. The final report is well written, reflects accurate proof reading with no grammatical, syntactic, spelling, or typographical errors, style of writing is consistent throughout and the report represents a coherent, integrated and holistic paper (15%).

9. Prepare a 15 minutes presentation showcasing your approach in addressing the major project requirements (30% individual grade).