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ECMT2150 INTERMEDIATE ECONOMETRICS

Week 1 Tutorial

Review of Probabilitand Statistics

Question)1:

Express the following in summation notation:

a.  x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5

b.  x1 + 2x2 + 3x3 + 4x4 + 5x5

c.   x1(2) + y1(2)+ x2(2) + y2(2)+ x 3(2) + y3(2) + … + x4(2) + y4(2)

 

Question 2:

Define the average (or mean) as x = 1 xi .  Show that:

a.  1 (xi   x) = 0                    

b.  1 (xi  x)xi  = 1 (xi  x)2

 

Question 3: (Wooldridge)Appendix)A)Q. 10):

Suppose that in a particular state a standardized test is given to all graduating high  school students. Let score denote a student’s score on the test. Someone discovers that performance on the test is related to the size of the student’s graduating high    school class.  The relationship is quadratic:

score = 46.5 + 0.082 * class 一 0.000147 class2

a.  How'do'you'literally'interpret'the'value'45.6'in'the'equation?''By'itself,'is'it'of much'interest?'Explain.

b.  From'the'equation,'what'is'the'optimal'size'of the'graduating'class'(i.e. the'class size'that'maximizes'the'test'score)?'(Round'your'answer'to'the'nearest'integer.) What'is'the'highest'achievable'test'score?

c.   Sketch'a'graph'that'illustrates'your'solutions'in'part'b.

d.  Does'it'seem'likely'that score and class have'a'deterministic'relationship?''That is,'is'it'realistic'to'think'that'once'you'know'the'size'of'a'student’s'graduating     class'you'know,'with'certainty,'his'or'her'test'score?''Explain.

 

Question 4 (Wooldridge)Appendix)B)Question)4):

For'a'randomly'selected'local'labour'market'area'in'Australia, let'X'represent'the     proportion'of'adults'over'age'65'who'are'employed,'i.e. the'mature'age'employment rate. The'X'is'restricted'to'a'value'between'zero'and'one.  Suppose'the'cumulative  distribution'function'for'X'is'given'by: F  = 3x2 2x3 for'all 0 三 x  1. Find'the      probability'that'the'matureRage'employment'rate'is'at'least'0.6'(60%).

 


 

Question 5: (Wooldridge)Appendix C Question 1):

Let F", F$, F% and F& be'independent,'identically'distributed'random'variables'from'a   population'with'a'mean H and'variance I$ . Let F =  (F" + F$ + F% + F&) denote'the average of'these'four'random'variables.

a.  What'is'the'expected'value'and'variance'of F in'terms'of H and'variance I$ ?

b.  Now'consider'a'different'estimator'of H.

J =  F" +  F$ +  F% +  F&

This' is' an' example' of' a' weighted' average' of' the F0 . Show' that  W is' also' a weighted'average'of H. Find'the'variance'of W.

c.  Based'on'the'above,'which'estimator'of H do'you'prefer, F or W?

Question 6:

The following table gives the joint probability density function P(X = x,Y = y) = f (x, y)  of two random variables X and Y :

 

 

Y

 

0

X

1

 

2

10

0.05

0.3

0.1

20

0.1

0.25

0.2

a.  Evaluate the marginal distributions of X and Y, fX(x) and fY(y).

b.  Evaluate E(X) and E( Y).

c.  Find the conditional distribution f (X = x|Y = 10) and its mean.

d.  Compare   E(X)   and   E(X| Y=10).   Are   the   conditional   and   unconditional expectations the same? If no, why are they different?

e.  Explain whether or not X'and Y are statistically'independent.

Question)7:

Let Xi  be the random variable which represents the return from a stock i.  There are 4 stocks with'the'mean and variance structure which'can'summarised as follows:

X1 ~ (1, 2),          X2 ~ (1, 2),          X3 ~ (2, 0),          X4 ~ (2, 4).

It is also known that

 


 

Cov(X1, X2) = 1,           Cov(X1, X4) =  1,           Cov(X2, X4) =  1.

Note that the mean and variance represent the mean return and risk involved with a stock. For example, the stock X3 gives a return of 2 without any risk.

Two'portfolios'are'formed'from'these'stocks:

A = X1 + X2 + X3,                        B = X1 + X2 + X4.

Determine which'portfolio you would prefer to'hold.

Question 8:

There are three types of data: cross sectional, time series, and panel data. For the following studies, what type of data is more appropriate.

(a) Analyzing the behavior of unemployment rates across U.S. states in March of 2013.

(b)  Studying inflation in the United States from 1970 to 2013.

(c) Analyzing the effect of minimum wage changes on teenage employment across the 48 contiguous U.S. states from 1980 to 2013.