LUBS5901M01 Quantitative Methods for International Business 2020/2021
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LUBS5901M01
Quantitative Methods for International Business
Semester Two 2020/2021
Question 1.
A research project is carried out to explore the business models of Italian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and the associated impact on their internationalization speed. Researchers aim to examine whether the SMEs with a global niche business model internationalize faster than those with a mass market business model. Italy is an open economy with global companies, many of them SMEs, and hence a good context to investigate speed of international expansion. Specifically, the researchers randomly selected 1000 Italian firms founded around the year 2000, and obtained their e-mail addresses from the official register of Italian companies compiled by Unioncamere, the Association of Italian Chambers of
Commerce.
Define the population of the research project. Evaluate the applied sampling strategy and the representativeness of the sample. Propose an alternative sampling strategy and justify its effectiveness.
[15 marks]
Question 2.
A multinational enterprise (MNE) aims to acquire a foreign firm as part of its internationalization strategy. Three target firms (Companies A, B, and C) are selected in different countries. Their sales performances in the past 5 years are reported in Figure 2.1.
Meanwhile, by analyzing the data on cross-border acquisitions within the industry, the top management team (TMT) find that the post-acquisition performance may be affected by the linguistic distance and cultural distance between their company and the target firm. They visualize the industry data in Figures 2.2 and 2.3 to illustrate the relationship between cultural/linguistic distances on post-acquisition performance. Accordingly, the TMT collect the cultural distance and linguistic distance with each of the three target firms and report in Table 2.1.
Figure 2.1 Boxplot of Sales of the target firms
Figure 2.2 Scatter plot between Cultural distance and Post-acquisition performance
Figure 2.3 Scatter plot between Linguistic distance and Post-acquisition performance
Table 2.1 The cultural and linguistic distances between MNE and targeted firms
|
Company A |
Company B |
Company C |
Cultural distance |
3.5 |
2.5 |
4.3 |
Linguistic distance |
4.2 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
Based on the information provided, please advise the MNE which company to acquire and explain your answer.
[25 marks]
Question 3.
The project is to investigate how formal and informal institutional features influence the likelihood that a cross-border acquisition deal will be completed, as well as the time taken for its completion after announcement. The two dependent variables are:
• Acquisition completion, which is a dummy variable that takes the value 1 if the announced acquisition is completed and 0 if it is not,
• Acquisition duration, which is calculated as the difference (in days) between the dates of completion and announcement of an acquisition.
The formal institution is a hierarchy of rules (constitutional law, statute law, common law and bylaws) together defining the formal structure of rights in a specific exchange, and determining how costly it is to make the exchange. It consists of two factors:
• Expropriation risk (contract repudiation and risk of expropriation)
• Procedural complexity (the number of days necessary to complete a contractual procedure and the strength of legal system)
To obtain the formal institutional distance, the researcher calculated the distance between the formal institutional factors of the two partners’ home countries: expropriation risk distance and procedural complexity distance (larger value means larger distance).
The informal institution also includes two factors:
• Uncertainty avoidance involves the extent to which ambiguous situations are threatening to individuals, rules and order are preferred, and uncertainty is tolerated in a society,
• Power distance refers to how power is distributed between managers and subordinates, and to what the expectations are regarding the equality of power.
To obtain the informal institutional distance, the researcher calculated the differences between the informal institutional factors of the two partners’ home countries: uncertainty avoidance difference and power distance difference (larger value means larger difference).
The acquisition experience is measured by the number of acquisitions completed by the acquirer within the same industry.
Cash payment is a dummy variable that indicates whether the transaction was
predominantly cash-financed (1) or stock-financed (0).
The researcher develops six hypotheses:
Hypothesis 1a. There is a negative relationship between acquisition completion and the formal institutional differences between the partners’ home nations.
Hypothesis 1b. There is a positive relationship between acquisition duration and the formal institutional differences between the partners’ home nations.
Hypothesis 2a. There is a negative relationship between acquisition completion and the informal institutional differences between the partners’ home nations.
Hypothesis 2b. There is a positive relationship between acquisition duration and the informal institutional differences between the partners’ home nations.
Hypothesis 3a. Acquirer’s prior cross-border acquisition experience moderates the effect of institutional differences on acquisition completion: the negative relationships in H1a and H2a become weaker as cross-border acquisition experience increases.
Hypothesis 3b. Acquirer’s prior cross-border acquisition experience moderates the effect of institutional differences on acquisition duration: the positive relationships in H1b and H2b become weaker as cross-border acquisition experience increases.
The six hypotheses are tested using data from 2389 announced cross-border acquisition deals in the international business service industry (1981–2001). Among them, only 467 deals have available data on the dates of announcement and completion. The researchers conducted a binary logistic regression and a linear regression analysis to study the impact of (formal and informal) institutional differences on acquisition completion and acquisition duration, respectively. The results are reported in Table 3.1.
You are required to answer the following questions:
a) Write down the statistical models for Model 1 and Model 4, respectively.
[6 marks]
b) Suggest whether the results in Table 3.1 are consistent with any of the six hypotheses. Please support your answer with the detailed analysis (in terms of the direction and statistical significance of the key explanatory variables).
[14 marks]
c) The managers want to know how the results of this project can help them successfully complete cross-border acquisitions. How would you respond? Your answer should focus on the aspects covered in the hypotheses.
[10 marks]
Table 3.1 Regression results
Acquisition completion (N=2398) Acquisition duration (N=467)
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6
Intercept |
1.189** |
1.906** |
1.872** |
419.705*** |
426.229*** |
418.892*** |
Cash payment |
(0.993) 0.563*** |
(0.990) 0.557*** |
(0.986) 0.572*** |
(92.787) -52.760*** |
(92.480) -56.610*** |
(93.062) -52.796*** |
Expropriation risk distance |
(0.146) |
(0.146) |
(0.145) |
(16.211) |
(16.232) |
(16.247) |
-0.104* |
-0.066 |
0.097 |
28.950*** |
41.292*** |
28.867*** |
|
Procedural complexity distance |
(0.060) |
(0.064) |
(0.060) |
(10.536) |
(11.800) |
(10.567) |
-0.118* |
-0.121* |
-0.113* |
-4.887 |
-5.034 |
-4.681 |
|
Power distance difference |
(0.064) |
(0.070) |
(0.064) |
(7.600) |
(8.142) |
(7.659) |
-0.252* |
-0.258* |
-0.168 |
19.667 |
18.511 |
22.294 |
|
Uncertainty avoidance difference |
(0.148) |
(0.148) |
(0.156) |
(20.364) |
(20.450) |
(22.513) |
-0.224* |
-0.210* |
-0.159 |
8.728 |
10.747 |
8.727 |
|
Acquisition experience |
(0.118) |
(0.118) 0.049* |
(0.125) 0.044* |
(14.309) |
(14.281) -1.962 |
(16.176) 0.044 |
Acquisition experience * Expropriation risk distance Acquisition experience * Procedural complexity distance Acquisition experience * Power distance difference Acquisition experience * Uncertainty avoidance difference |
|
(0.023) -0.017* (0.009) -0.001 (0.018) |
(0.024)
-0.055* (0.033) -0.052 (0.034) |
|
(2.743) -15.158** (6.528) -0.967 (2.389) |
(3.078)
- 1.949 (7.055) -0.113 (4.374) |
Log-Likelihood Adjusted R-square |
1042.499 |
1139.728 |
1040.586 |
0.22 |
0.23 |
0.22 |
*p<0.05, **p<0.01 and ***p<0.001 (standard errors in parenthesis).
Question 4.
A research team is examining the factors influencing the international entrepreneurship decision (dummy variable, 1 if the entrepreneur pursues an international opportunity and 0 otherwise). A sample of 4132 entrepreneurs are surveyed. The variables involved in the study include:
• International experience of the entrepreneur (dummy variable, 1 if the entrepreneur has international experience in the past 5 years and 0 otherwise);
• Resources (natural logarithm of firm assets);
• Gender (dummy variable, 1 for male and 0 for female);
• Network (the number of entrepreneurial connections);
• Fear of failure (the number of failed international entrepreneurial actions in the past).
The researchers conduct a linear probability model due to the fact that the dependent variable is dummy. The results are reported as follows:
Figure 4.1 Histogram of the residuals
2022-08-06