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MGTS7523 (System Dynamics) – Assignment 1 (2022)

• There are three questions that must be answered. Provide your answers in a single document (Word, PDF), submitted through TurnItIn link on Blackboard.

• The total mark for Assignment 1 is out of 50%

• Any causal loop diagrams (CLDs) must be developed using Vensim or Stella Architect software, and copied and pasted into your answer document (Q1, Q2, Q3).

• Screen capture of behaviour over time (BOT) charts from the Lobster Game case recommended (Q2)

• Hand-drawn BOT charts for Q3 (i.e. photographed and pasted into Answer document) allowed. Conversely you can use software such as Powerpoint to create these.

• Charts must have figure titles and need to be referenced from your text.

Question 1 – MacQuarie Island [5 Marks]

This question has two parts and relates to the UQ Case ‘Macquarie Island’ (2 pages maximum).

Part 1: Apply the four (4) levels of systems thinking to explain the case of Macquarie Island and why removing the cats to save the seabirds led to unintended consequences.

[2.5 Marks]

Part 2: The second step in the systems modelling process involves formulating a dynamic hypothesis. Your dynamic hypothesis should be an endogenous explanation of system behaviour. Explain what this means and what the difference is between exogenous and endogenous variables, using a causal loop diagram (CLD) for the Macquarie Island example (UQ Case).

[2.5 Marks]

Question 2 – UQ Cases question [30 Marks]

This question relates to the UQ Case ‘The Lobster Game’ (https://lobstermodel.web.app/) There are three parts to this question – you need to answer all three parts. Ensure that you read the ‘Story’ component carefully as it provides important information that will help you answer this question.

Part 1

When the Lobster Game is run under default conditions (i.e. none of the controls are adjusted), the number of adult lobsters (ADULTS) is approximately constant over the model’s time horizon of 250 weeks. In approximately 200 words, explain using evidence (behaviour over time charts) whether the number of adult lobsters is an example of ‘dynamic equilibrium’ or ‘static equilibrium’ conditions. [5 Marks]

Part 2

Using Vensim, or Stella Architect, construct a sub-system diagram (as a CLD) using the six components of the ‘controls’ panel (Figure 1) – treat each component as a sub-system i.e. the sub-system components will be:

- Regulatory

- Demand

- Economic

- Effort1

- Biological

- Supply chain

Ensure that your sub-system diagram shows causal connections, polarities and feedback labels. Explain your sub-system diagram in approximately 500 words.

[10 Marks]

Part 3

For Part 3 of Question 2 you need to make the following adjustments:

1. Run the Lobster case under default conditions.

2. Go to the controls window (Figure 1) and set ‘Quarantine pause’ to ON (Figure 2). This will increase the time that the live lobsters are quarantined2 by 12 weeks over a 50- week period, start at week 50 of the simulation.

3. Re- Run the Lobster case to show the impact of this Quarantine pause.

Explain (500 - 750 words) the dynamics introduced by this Quarantine pause using the following list of ‘key’ variables (all are shown as behaviour over time charts in the Lobster case). Include with your explanation the behaviour over time charts for each of the seven key variables. Also include a CLD, showing all necessary polarities and loop labels, that reflects any causal connections between these seven key variables.

[15 Marks]

1 ‘Effort’ refers to the amount of effort (effectively the time spent fishing) that the Fishers exert trying to catch lobsters

2 Quarantine occurs at the destination country where the live lobsters are exported to. All lobsters will spend time in quarantine – the quarantine pause dramatically increases this time.

1. Landed (caught)

2. Adjusted effort (actual fishing effort)

3. Stored (prior to export)

4. Quarantined (at destination)

5. Price

6. Adults

7. Adjusted demand (actual demand at destination)

Figures

Access controls through this button

Figure 1. Accessing the ‘Controls’ panel for the Lobster Game

Access controls

through this button

Figure 2. The required ‘Quarantine pause’ setting

Question 3 – System Archetype [15 Marks]

For Question 3, your task is to choose one of the System Archetypes discussed in the course and provide a real-life example for this archetype.

Your example should be original, not copied from the course textbooks, published articles, class notes, UQ Cases or case study presentations. For your archetype example you need to provide the following:

1. A description of the circumstances and how they make your example a particular system archetype.

2. A causal loop diagram (CLD) describing the system archetype. Your CLD must:

• be created in Vensim or STELLA and copy/pasted into your answer document. Do not hand-draw or use other software (e.g. Powerpoint)

• include all polarities, delays (where necessary) and loop types (balancing and reinforcing loops)

• link the description of the circumstances in your example to your CLD

3. A graph of the behaviour over time produced by the archetype. Your graph must include variables that relate to your example [do not use generic labels]. You can hand draw these and photograph to include in your assignment, or use Powerpoint to draw.

4. A description of the principles for managing the archetype behaviour. Your description of these management principles must relate to your example.

References are beneficial and should be provided where your example comes from documented sources.

Your answer to Question 3 should be no longer than one page.