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MANG6020W1

SEMESTER 2 EXAMINATIONS 2018- 19

FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT

1.   A bank has the following transactions with another bank.

-    A two-year forward contract on a foreign currency, currently worth £2 million, to buy foreign currency worth £50 million

-    A long position in a six-month option on the S&P 500 with the principal equal to £20 million and the current value equal to   £4 million

-    A two-year swap involving oil with the principal equal to £30 million and the current value of the swap equal to   –£5 million

Risk weights are as follows: 0% for cash and government bonds; 20% for claims on OECD banks; 50% for residential mortgages; 100% for corporate loans and corporate bonds

Add-on factors (% of principal)

Remaining Maturity    (years)

Interest

rate

Exchange Rate and

Gold

Equity

Precious

Metals

except gold

Other            Commodities

<1

0.0

1.0

6.0

7.0

10.0

1 to 5

0.5

5.0

8.0

7.0

12.0

>5

1.5

7.5

10.0

6.0

15.0

(a)   Estimate the capital required under Basel I for this bank.

Assume the netting amendment does not apply.

[30 marks]

(b)   Re-estimate the capital required if the netting amendment in

Basel I ( 1995) applies. Discuss how the application of       netting amendment affects the amount of required capital.

[45 marks]

(c)   Suppose that this bank also has cash of £50 million and lends £50 million to a company. Re-estimate the capital required if the netting amendment applies. Discuss how your answer differs from the answer to question (b)

[25 marks]

(a)   Consider the following problem:

A corporation plans to issue £1 million of 5-year bonds in 3 months. At current yields, the bonds would have a modified duration of 4 years. The corporation desires to hedge their  interest rate exposure with 20-year T-bond futures which    have a modified duration of 9 years. Each futures contract  has a par value of £100,000 and currently sold at £90,000. The corporation estimates that the yield on 20-year bonds  changes by 1 basis points for every 1.5-basis-point move in the yield on 5-year bonds

(i)  How can the firm use this T-bond futures contract to  hedge the risk surrounding the yield at which it will be able to sell its bonds?

[20 marks]

(ii) Suppose that the yield on 20-year bonds actually            changes by 1 basis points for every 1-basis-point move  in the yield on 5-year bonds. Does the corporation have to review their decision on futures position? What should they do?

[30 marks]

(b)   The following information is the balance sheet of Bank A. All

interest rates are fixed and paid annually.

Asset

Amount

Rate

Duration

Cash

£7.5 million

 

 

Loans

£75 million

12%

1.75 years

Treasuries

£17.5 million

9%

7.00 years

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and Equity

Amount

Rate

Duration

Time Deposits

£35 million

7%

1.75 years

CDs

£57.5 million

8%

2.50 years

Equity

£7.5 million

 

 

Calculate the leveraged adjusted duration gap of this       position. Is the bank exposed to interest rate increases or decreases and why?

[50 marks]

3.    Consider the following problem:

Suppose that the probability of an entity defaulting during a year conditional on no earlier default is 2%. Assume that defaults      always happen halfway through a year. The risk-free rate is 5% per annum with continuous compounding and the recovery rate is 40%.

Assume that payments on a 3-year credit default swap (CDS)  are made once a year, at the end of each year. The credit        default spread is equal to s basis points. That is, payments are made at the rate of s per year and the notional principal is £1.  The accrual payment of 0.5s made in the event of a default.

(a)   Calculate the survival probabilities and unconditional default

probabilities for each of the three years.

[20 marks]

(b)   Calculate the present value of the expected payments made

on the CDS.

[20 marks]

(c)   Calculate the present value of the expected payoff.

[20 marks]

(d)   Calculate the present value of the expected accrual payments.

[20 marks]

(e)   From the answer of (a) – (d), what is s equal to? Suppose

the CDS had been negotiated some time ago for a spread of 200 basis points. Calculate the value of swap to the      seller/buyer.

[20 marks] 4.    Discuss how banks reduce and manage their credit risk

[ 100 marks]