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ECON 3014: International Finance

Presentation ANSWERS

Week 2

1.    Rouble

a.    Russian perspective foreign currency terms:                  1                          × 100 = 265. 14% USD 109.6327

appreciated by 265.14%

b.    Russian perspective home currency terms:  × 100 = 265. 14% USD appreciated by 265.14%

c.    US perspective foreign currency terms:  × 100 = −72.61% Rouble declined by 72.61%

()

 

declined by 72.61%

 

 

2.    Ukraine is able to produce wheat more efficiently than other countries and therefore is a major exporter of wheat to Europe.

 

 

3.    Even though Australia has a comparative advantage is the production of rice it is unable to     export rice to Japan because the Japanese government interferes in the global rice market by placing quotes and tariffs on the importation of rice

 

4.   Tesla

a.    Market seekers  Tesla is seeking a new market.  Potentially, Tesla might be seeking       political safety as Australia is a country that would not interfere with private enterprise. AND potentially, Tesla might be seeking knowledge workers and maybe raw materials.

b.   The six challenges Tesla would face are:

•   Twin Agency

•    Foreign exchange

•    Political

•    Corporate governance

•    Culture, history, institutions

5.   Atlassian will face all the challenges of international expansion when it launches into Europe:

•    Culture, history, institutions

•    Corporate governance

•    Foreign exchange

•    Political

•    Domestic financial theories

•    Financial instruments

•   Twin agency

 

 

Week 3

1.    Ukraine:

a.    The World Bank was developed as part of the Bretton Woods agreement to rebuild post- war Europe and most likely will be engaged to rebuild post-war Ukraine

b.   The other gubernational agency that was developed as part of Bretton Woods was the International Monetary Fund.  The IMF was created to assist countries to stabilise their currency

c.    These agencies were created as part of the Bretton Woods agreement

2.    Currency regimes:

a.    Being pegged against the British Pound meant the Australian dollar had a fixed exchange rate, that was able to move within a range, against the British Pound

b.    Being pegged against the US dollar meant the Australian dollar had a fixed exchange rate, that was able to move within a range, against the US dollar

c.    Being pegged against a basket of currencies means the Australian dollar had a fixed    exchange rate against an INDEX of a basket of currencies, the basket defined by the    Reserve Bank of Australia based upon Australia’s major trading partners, and that the exchange rate against this index was able to move within a range.

3.   The impossible trinity are three characteristics that are impossible to achieve simultaneously.   One, or two of these characteristics may be achieved, but all three are impossible to achieve at once.  These characteristics are:

a.    exchange rate stability

b.   full financial integration

c.    monetary independence

4.   The Euro is a global reserve currency which means the Euro is held as foreign exchange reserves by central banks.  The requirement to achieve global reserve currency status is that there must  be sufficient Euro in the global monetary system for it to be held by central banks.  Therefore,    the Eurozone must run current account deficits.

 

 

Week 4

1.    Being a major exporter of wheat and minerals means Ukraine would be expected to run a            current account surplus as money comes into the country to pay for these goods.  Balancing this cashflow would be an outflow in the financial and capital accounts.

2.    Shutting down the SWIFT network means that Russia’s financial institutions are unable to     transfer payments to the rest of the world, and therefore Russia will be unable to export or  import goods and services.  Accordingly, there will be no impact on the balance of payments

because Russia will be unable to trade with the rest of the world.  However, as Russia has a          floating currency, its central bank will be unable to defend the currency against sales by offshore institutions

3.    Income sub-account of the current account in deficit

4.   To manage the currency under a managed float regime the central bank will enter financial           markets to slow the movement in the FX rate.  Thus, in the first month of the war when money is leaving the country (to buy weapons and as refugees cross the border to leave the war zone) the central bank will BUY Hryvnia and raise interest rates.  In the second month, when the West will  pour money into Ukraine to support the elected government, the central bank will need to sell    Hryvnia and reduce interest rates to maintain a stable currency

5.   A fall in the GBP against the Euro will make UK goods appear cheap on global markets, which    over time will lead to increased exports from the UK to the rest of the world.  Furthermore, the fall in the GBP will make imports into the UK appear relatively expensive, which over time will   lead to reduced imports.  Initially though, trade volumes will not change and the UK economy   will slow.  Over time though as trading volumes adjust, the UK economy will recover and            increase.  These changes in the level of economic output in the UK is described as the J-curve.

 

 

Week 5

1.    Russia’s expulsion from SWIFT creates Herstatt Risk, which is otherwise known as settlement risk.  This risk arises because one party to the transaction might have settled their leg prior to Russia’s expulsion from SWIFT.

2.   Although, in reality this risk is small today because FX transactions are settled via the        Continuously Linked Settlement Platform which uses a Payment versus Payment process.

3.   Traders can still trade the USD/RBL exchange rate even though they can’t settle the RBL leg of the trade by using Non-Deliverable Forwards.  With Non-Deliverable Forwards, only the net of the USD leg is settled.

4.    Most currency pair quotes are European Terms.  The only instances which are in American terms are: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD

5.    Cross rate arbitrage:

a.    Determine the arbitrage: EUR/PLN = 1.1116 EUR/USD x 4.2708 USD/PLN = 4.7474

b.    Observe that the market is trading expensive and therefore we wish to trade left to right

c.    50 lots is EUR 5m

d.    Convert EUR 5m into PLN @ EUR/PLN 4.7487 = PLN 23,743,500.00

e.    Convert PLN 23,743,500.00 into USD @ USD/PLN 4.2708 =  USD 5,559,497.05

f.    Convert USD 5,559,497.05 into EUR @ 1.1116 = EUR 5,001,346.75

g.    Profit is EUR 1,346.75