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Tutorial 1 - Questions

Intermediate Macroeconomics (23568)

1. Look at GDP long run growth, period variation, and the list of Australian recessions:

• make sure that you can identify trend and business cycles.

• Try to identify the recessions and some characteristics of growth and period variation of GDP: is growth constant? Is volatility constant?

Begin

1 Apr 1961

1 Oct 1971

1 Jan 1974

1 Jul 1975

1 Jul 1977

1 Oct 1981

1 Oct 1990

1 Apr 2020

End

30 Sep 1961

31 Mar 1972

30 Jun 1974

31 Dec 1975

31 Dec 1977

30 Jun 1983

30 Jun 1991

1 Oct 2020

 

Figure 1: Australia GDP and trend (index, 2015=100).


Figure 2: Australia GDP growth (source: FRED data).

 

2. Look at the graphs of GDP, employment, wage, and inflation and discuss the co-movements of the series: which series move together with GDP (pro-cyclical), in opposite direction to GDP (anti-cyclical), or are uncorrelated with GDP (acyclical)?

3. Considering the three components of GDP expenditure C, I, G:

• which one is more sensitive to GDP fluctuations?

• Is there any other information that we can gather by comparing the graphs?

 


Consumer Price Inflation*

 

 


Total pay excluding bonuses

Source: ABS

Figure 5: Australian wage growth (source: RBA).

Household Income and Consumption*

Real, year-ended growth

Consumption

 

Household sector rnciudes unincorporated enterprises; disposable income is after tax and interest payments; saving ratio is net of depreciation

Sources: ABS: RBA

 

Figure 6: Australian consumption and income growth (source: RBA).

Business Investment*

 

* Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers between the private and other sectors

Source: ABS

Figure 7: Australian business investment as a share of GDP (source: RBA).

 

Australian Government Budget Balance*

 

Source: Australian Treasury

Figure 8: Australian budget balance (source: RBA).