The dynamics of Covid-19 pandemic in a country of your choice
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Topic: The dynamics of Covid-19 pandemic in a country of your choice.
This assignment is based on the range of epidemic models discussed in Week 4
`Epidemiology' of the course.
We have considered a number of epidemic models in the class. Use them as a starting
point. Decide on whether you need to introduce different states like incubation period, decide
on movements between states, like whether a vaccinated person may get infected, and so
on. Decide on what type of policy (quarantine, vaccination, face masks, distance) you want
to consider.
Write down the motivation for your model, write down a mathematical model and briefly
explain each equation.
A very important aspect of the project is `calibration', i.e. assigning values to parameters of
the model. This is where you need to read other research, and/or look at the data. Choose coefficients based on what you find, and explain your calibration carefully.
Simulate the model and see if you can explain the observed dynamics in the chosen country.
Comment on successes and failures.
Your MATLAB code should have comments explaining what is being done.
Several data sources (you may use any other relevant data sources)
The New York Times data https://github.com/nytimes/covid- 19-data
Centre for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID- 19
https://github.com/owid/covid- 19-data/tree/master/public/data
Covid- 19 in Iceland https://www.covid.is/data
ONS UK
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsandd
iseases/datalist
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate
Word count: 1500 words as a guidance, not including graphs, tables, formulas and the code.
The submission should consist of two files. One is a document file with your report, another
is a zip-file containing MATLAB code.
Assessment criteria
1.) Motivation and rationale for choosing the specific mode, critical discussion of features such as quarantine, vaccination and other features of your model. 2.) Implementation and computation technically correct, well-illustrated and correct interpretation
3.) Critical discussion of the model performance. 4.) Presentation of the results, clear communication and well structured.
2022-03-05