FINS3616 – International Business Finance Summer Term 2022
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FINS3616 – International Business Finance
Summer Term 2022
Course Assignment
International Parity Conditions/PPP Theory Assignment Questions
We will focus on the US and Australia. Refer to the attached Excel file which has key macroeconomic data for both countries.
1. Use the realised rates of inflation for both countries from 2004Q1 to 2021Q1 to calculate the USD/AUD exchange rate according to relative PPP. In other words, suppose we are in 2004Q1, and we want to forecast the USD/AUD exchange rate one year ahead. Repeat for each quarter in the sample period. Refer to Exhibit 4-7 in the textbook (page 151) to give you a sense of what is being expected. How well does this international parity condition explain the USD/AUD exchange rate? You will need to compare the RPPP-implied exchange rate with the realised exchange rate. Plot the two time series in a graph and report the average disparity between the two. Are there any periods where there is a large disparity between the realised exchange rate and the RPPP-implied exchange rate? Provide commentary as to the reasons in approximately 150 words. (2 marks)
2. Between 2010Q4-2013Q1 the Australian dollar’s value reached parity, and also exceeded parity against the USD. Using the data provided identify the reason(s) for the appreciation of the AUD against the USD. You can also refer to other sources to support your argument. Is such an outcome consistent with what you have learnt thus far in this course about PPP theory? (2 marks)
3. Can PPP theory explain the reason(s) for the decline in the AUD against the USD during the global financial crisis (see 2008Q2 to 2009Q1)? Calculate the percentage change in the USD/AUD exchange rate over this period. What other economic factors could have been at play? Provide commentary (approximately 150 words). (1 mark)
4. Using the data provided in the Excel file, calculate the value of the real exchange rate (USD/AUD) at the end of the sample period, and compare it with the value of the real exchange rate at the start of the sample period. Provide brief commentary about the reasons for the change or lack thereof in the real exchange rate in approximately 150 words. You should focus on the effect of inflation rates, real interest rates, and which agents in the two economies benefitted from the changes in the real exchange rate (for example, were importers or exporters the main beneficiaries?) (3 marks)
5. Consider the following econometric structural model of the USD/AUD exchange rate:
Δ/ = 0 + 1Δ, + 2Δ, + 3 + 4 +
where
Δ/ is the change in the USD/AUD exchange rate over period .
Δ is the annual percentage growth rate in real GDP over period
is the inflation rate differential for period
is the interest rate differential for period
Table 1 below summarises the regression output of the model presented in Equation 1 using
selected forecast horizons: a 1-quarter horizon, 1-year horizon and a 3-year horizon.
Table 1.
Variable/Particular |
1-quarter horizon |
1-year horizon |
3-year horizon |
Intercept |
0.005 (0.732) |
0.027 (0.421) |
0.708 (0.000) |
Real GDP Growth Aus |
0.802 (0.304) |
1.697 (0.307) |
- 1.260 (0.502) |
Real GDP Growth US |
- 1.041 (0.063) |
-2.363 (0.03) |
1.162 (0.180) |
Inflation Rate Differential |
1.079 (0.222) |
2.775 (0.114) |
-0.940 (0.597) |
Interest Rate Differential |
-0.818 (0.439) |
-2.738 (0.183) |
12.151 (0.000) |
Adjusted R-squared |
4.20% |
9.83% |
41.22% |
F-stat |
1.749 (0.150) |
2.772 (0.035) |
10.991 (0.000) |
Number of observations |
69 |
66 |
58 |
Note: all numbers appearing in parentheses are p-values.
You will need to refer to Table 1 to answer the questions below. Provide concise responses.
a. Analyse the statistical significance of the coefficient estimates in Table 1 at the 5% level. (1 mark)
b. Consider both the F-statistic (at the 5% level of significance) and the adjusted R- squared as the forecast horizon increases from 1 quarter to 3 years. Interpret these figures for the 3-year horizon output in Table 1. Provide some commentary and briefly discuss whether such results are consistent with PPP theory. (1 mark)
c. Which macroeconomic variable(s) are considered statistically significant at the 5% level) and economically important for modelling changes in the USD/AUD exchange rate? Are you surprised by these results? (1 mark)
d. The latest forecasts of the key macroeconomic variables are:
Macroeconomic Variable |
Forecast |
Real GDP Growth (Australia) |
3.20% |
Real GDP Growth (US) |
3.30% |
Expected Inflation Rate (Australia) |
3.012% |
Expected Inflation Rate (US) |
5.288% |
Interest Rate (Australia) |
1.638% |
Interest Rate (US) |
1.579% |
Use these values to estimate the change in the USD/AUD exchange rate in 1 years’ time. Which currency is expected to appreciate based on your calculation? Is this consistent with PPP theory? (1 mark)
Additional Important Information to Note:
a. One mark out of the 15 marks will be allocated to grammar, spelling and professionality of the responses given. You need to ensure that your work is polished and contains NO errors. Remember you are presenting your work. When you are working professionally, the market expects high quality output.
b. All responses to this assignment must be in English. Submissions in any other language will result in a 0 for this assignment.
c. Lengthy responses to questions will result in only the first 150 words of each part being graded.
d. You must type your answers and submit as a PDF document via Turnitin. Ensure that the cover sheet is attached with your submission. See Moodle for cover sheet. A submission without the coversheet will result in 2 marks being deducted. Also submit your Excel file with the calculations.
e. If you use sources in your answers, ensure that you formally cite them. The style of referencing is for you to decide.
f. There is NO grace period for any submissions.
g. Late submissions will attract a 2-percentage point penalty per day following the assignment due date (weekend days included). For example, if your assignment is submitted late by one day and your grade for the assignment was 12/15, the 2-percentage point penalty will imply that your adjusted grade is 10/15. A submission made one week (that is, 7 days) after the specified due date will result in a grade of 0 for this assignment.
h. Your answers must be written by you and only you. Turnitin has a similarity indicator and submissions with similarity greater than 10% will incur a loss of marks commensurate with the degree of similarity above this threshold. For example, if a submission obtains a similarity of 33%, then 23% of the student’s assignment grade will be deducted. If the student obtains 12/15, then the adjusted assignment grade will be 9.24/15. This is calculated as (1-0.23)*12.
2022-02-04