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ELEC9715 Electricity Industry Operation and Control

This assignment willbe distributed to you at the start of week 4.It is due midnight friday of week 6.Yoursubmission should be a pdf document.The assignment must be submitted individually on the course moodlevia Turnitin,and must be your own work.The UNSW policy on student plagiarism can be found atwww.unsw.edu.au and you should note that the university uses automated software to check assignments.Note that you must save a copy of your Excel workbook(or databases and code if you use another tool such asmatlab or python).This will need to be uploaded into Moodle as well as the PDF report,but will only bechecked if there are concerns about possible plagiarism.Be sure to use the coversheet provided on the moodleand complete the checklist and sign it before submission.

The assignment will be marked out of 20(5 marks per question).One mark per question is for your explanationof how you answered the question,2 marks are for your actual analysis,1 mark is for the discussion and 1markis for the quality of the presentation -ie.does your report look professional.No explanation of how youundertook the analysis (it only needs to be brief)or discussion of your findings is lost marks.If you want the full4 marks for presentation over the assignment you have to make it look like a professional consulting report.

The two assignments over the course are worth 25%of your final assessment.Late submission without goodreason,as explainedin an email to the course lecturer prior to the due submission time,will see marks reducedas per the details in the Course Guide.Late submissions must be directly emailed to the lecturer as well asuploaded into Moodle.In keeping with the recommended hours per week of study for a six unit of creditcourse,(around 10 hours of self-directed work per week additional to the 4 contact hours),we expect that youwill spend in the order of 15 to 20 hours of so in total on this assignment.The assignments are excellentpreparation for the final exam and it is essential,and a UNSW requirement,that you do it yourself.

Again,you should look to make your assignment like a consultancy report-ie.professional presentation withfigures,tables and graphs.It is excellent practice for the technical report writing you have to do as an engineerin the electricity industry sector.You should briefly outline your methods for answering the questions in thereport -engineers show their working.All tables and discussion must be pasted in as tables and text ratherthan pictures so that they are searchable via text (a requirement for Turnitin)-if you put tables or havediscussion in your report that can't be 'text'searched then it will not be marked.Finally,I am serious about theimportance of engineering reports explaining how they undertook the analysis and discussing what the findingsactually mean.Engineers shouldn't just present numerical analysis but try to also help(often non-engineer)readers to understand how they did the calculations and what then answers mean.

'l un a coupe of assignment consultation sessions online and in-person at the end of week 4 and then week 5if you want some assistance with what is a pretty long and,in some places,challenging assignment.

Electricity industry operation and control is determined by the operational capabilities of all supply,networkand end-use equipment.A key question is how the operational characteristics of existing and potential newgeneration technologies,as well as electricity demand,will shape future industry operation.

Question 1:

The Australian Energy Market Operator(AEMO)has recently updated its technical and cost estimates for allexisting and a range of possible new utility generators for its planning studies.These studies are an input intoits forthcoming 2026 Integrated System Plan(ISP).This requires AEMO to model operation of the AustralianNational Electricity Market(NEM)under a range of possible future generation and network scenarios.This,inturn,requires that they estimate key technical characteristics and capital and operating costs of all existinggeneraton and potential new generation technologies.The latest(2025)data for this is available on the AEMOwebsite as an Excel spreadsheet.It's a very interesting read and you may well wish to look at it and see howAEMO undertakes its modelling.However,to simplify the assignment you are provided a cut-down workbookin the file on the course moodle and/or MS Teams.The cut down assignment AEMO modeling work book has apre-prepared sheet with estimates(based on the AEMO data but with some additional assumptions)of theminimum and maximum operating levels operating costs and carbon emissions for allthe existing coal and gasgeneratng plants in Victoria(VIC),as well as hydro and utility wind and solar plant and battery energy storagein the State.

Plot the generation supply curve(Incremental variable cost $/MWh versus MW system generation foreconomic dispatch)for the existing VIC thermal plant mix (all coal and gas-fired generators)for two possiblecabon price scenarios -S0/tCO2 which is the current level since the removal of Australia's carbon price in2014)and $100/tCO2 which is close to the official Value of Emission Reductions (VER)for rule making in theNEM.For the second carbon scenario,allthe fossil fuelled plants are required to pay for each tCO2 they emit,adding to their operating costs from Variable O&M and fuel purchasing.In reality,the VER is what is called ashadow'price,and generators don't have to pay it.Instead it is used for rule making and regulation settings onthe basis that they really should pay it.One day it may actually return as a real carbon price.

For simplicity ignore transmission losses and constraints.All the coal and gas units are committed-that is on-line and required to operate somewhere between their minimum and maximum output.
You will first need to calculate the 'sent out'operating cost-short run marginal cost or SRMC-(S/MWh)foreach generator for each carbon price.The spreadsheet is set up to assist in this.Note that you should stillexplain your working in the assignment so its clear you know how the calculation works.You'll then need tosort them from lowest to highest incremental operating costs.You can of course bundle multiple plants if theyare the same technology with the same costs(eg.PV,wind).
i)Plot the two supply curves(one for each carbon price scenario)on a single graph.These curves represent
the cost of the power system providing an additional MWh of demand -that is System Short RunMarginal Cost or SRMC as a function of demand for electrical energy over the entire range of economicdispatch.Think carefully about how minimum operating levels should be represented-we looked at thisin the week 3 class on economic dispatch.Discuss the implications of a carbon price on economic dispatchof the VIC thermal plant,and particularly any impacts on the merit order (that is,the order of generatingplant technologies from lowest to highest operating cost).You'll find a useful template for plotting supplycurves in the assignment workbook

We are now going to consider all current VIC generation including the coal and gas plants but also hydro,windand utility PV,and even Battery Energy Storage Systems(BESS).
ii)You now need to add existing hydro generation to the supply curve.Note that there are really threetypes of hydro generation to be modelled.Run of river plants effectively run whenever there is waterflow-for some schemes these plants effectively look like constant output generators(more water thanrequired at all times of the year)with only variable operating costs to cover.The problem as discussed inlectures,is that a lot of hydro plants are energy constrained -that is,their water actually has anopportunity cost/value.The third type is pumped hydro plants,but there are none of these currently inVIC.Plot the VIC supply curve for a zero carbon price now including all of the State's hydro units assumingthat they are run of river.Note the operating cost for these plants.On the same graph also plot the hydroif we were to treat it as energy constrained plant where it bids into the market at its opportunity cost.You can assume this is $300/MWh (standard call option contract value,as you'll learn when we coverpeaking plant operation).Discuss the impacts of treating hydro differently in the economic dispatchsupply curve.
iii)Now add existing VIC wind and solar to the supply curve.Keep the hydro all offering at $300/MWh.Themain challenge here is the high variability of wind and solar.Section ii)shows the supply curve if the windisn't blowing and the sun isn't shining anywhere across the State.Now plot the supply curve for a zerocarbon price for three cases (all on the same graph)-1)midday on a sunny day across VIC when theutility solar is all operating at rated capacity(it gets pretty close)but there is no wind,2)on a windywinter evening in VIC when the utility wind power is operating in aggregate at 80%of installed capacity(never really see all the State's wind generation all at rated output at the same time)but there is,ofcourse,no solar power,and 3)when its both sunny and windy with all (100%)utility PV and 80%of windgenerating Discuss the implications of VIC wind and solar on the generation supply curve and itsimplications for meeting State demand as it varies from a minimum of around 1500MW(due to all thatrooftop PV which we don't consider here),an average demand of around 5000MW to its maximum ofaround 10,000MW.In particular,do you envisage periods where coal and gas plants would ideally beturned off,or when there may be insufficient generation to meet demand?

iv)Now add the existing battery energy storage systems(BESS) to the curves from iv) above. For reasonsthat will be explained later in the course, one way to model energy constrained BESS(and pumped hydroplant) is to consider them as having an relatively high 'opportunity' operating cost. For this assignment wewill assume they have an operating(actually opportunity operating) cost of $300/MWh(hint,this is basedon the standard call option pricing in the NEM).
Briefly summarise the implications of all the above scenarios for economic dispatch in the VIC region as windand solar and BESS deployment increases and coal plant continue to retire.

Question 2:
This question involves analysis of actual generating plant operation in the NEM.You have been given access toNEMSight -an extremely powerful commercial package for analysing NEM data.Details for accessing NEMSightare available on the course Moodle.You will want to use its 'Time Machine'function to analyse a number ofVIC generators and characterize their operation over the calendar year 2025.Your analysis must be of calendaryear 2025.Note that you can plot graphs by fuel type or participant (which gives you the individual units).Choose one plant in VIC for each of the following generation technologies:
·  Coal
OCGT(gas turbine)plant
Hydro plant
Utility wind or solar farm(choose only one)
battery energy storage system(BESS)
You will want to eyeball historical data for your chosen plant to make sure there aren't any surprises -eg.notoperating for most of the year (a particular issue with some of the renewable generators that have onlyrecently been commissioned,or may not have even been connected yet).NEMSight offers very useful chartingof data,and if you wish to analyse it further you can then right click on the chart and it willallow you to copythe data as a table which you can then paste into xcel.In the assignment excel workbook I have alreadyprovided 5 minute prices and scheduled demand for calendar year 2025 so you can actually place your chosengenerator data into that sheet for your analysis.
i)For each of your chosen plant,use 5 minute dispatch data to estimate as best able the following:
a.Highest up ramp rate seen over the year in %RatedCapacity/min.Don't consider starts and
stops in this calculation -ramp rate is the change in output over 5 minutes when the plantstays operating.This can be a little tricky with very fast plant like OCGTs,hydro and definitelyBESS where they can go from zero to rated output pretty quickly.For coal plants on the otherhand,they might go from zero to mnimum operating level pretty quickly in the data,but theplant was actually started some time prior to this.
b.achieved capacity factor over the year %(actual output divided by possible output if plant
operated at its max output for every hour of the year).Think about how you might reportcapacity factor for the BESS as a generator,as well as overall.
c.Number of starts in the year(ie.Going from zero output to generation)
d.operating profit over the year,using the operating cost estimates from Question 1 above for
the zero carbon price scenario,and the regional spot prices for the coal,gas,hydro,wind orsolar plant(available from NEMSight but also provided in the assignment workbook).
Note that some plants may have been 'down'for extended periods over the past year-best to select anotherplant.A number of these plants,particularly thermal coal and gas plants and hydro,have multiple units thatcan cause some complexities for the analysis.You should analyse a single unit.Finally,note that we will bechecking for assignments that analyse the same generators given there is a choice available-this assignment ismeant to be done individually.My advice is to first eyebal the data of a range of plants to get a feel for thegeneral operation of different plants.Then you can write simple data analytics,using a wide range of helpfulExcel functions,to characterize their operational characteristics.Useful EXCEL functions for this include MAXand MIN and AVERAGE (eg.MAX(b:b)returns the largest number in column b).You can get ramp rates byadding a column which calculates the difference between adjacent cells containing 5 minute power outputsMW).And the IF function is very useful for filling an added column with a counter if power output is zero).Be sure to put your results in a table.Please comment on your findings,and the operational flexibility ofdifferen generation technologies,and the potential implications for VIC's electricity sector operation.

ii) Using 5 minute VIC scheduled demand data for calendar year 2025(available from NEMsight or inthe assignment workbook), determine the following:
a. Average demand(MW) over the year
b. Highest 5 minute demand(and when it occurred-date and time).
c. Lowest 5 minute demand (and when it occurred-date and time)
d. Highest up ramp rate(MW/min)
e. Highest down ramp rate(MW/min)
f. Effective capacity factor of demand (%) with respect to highest 5 minute demand seen overthe year 2025.
Be sure to put your results in a table and discuss their implications,particularly with respect to the variability ofVIC demand compared with its wind and utility PV.

Question 3:
Distributed energy resources(DER),increasingly now being called Consumer Energy Resources(CER)arebecoming an increasingly important generation source-Australia has a lot more rooftop PV than utility PV(25GW versus around 10GW).Other DER technologies include household appliances which have energystorage so that you can move around the time that they run -electric storage hot water systems are aparticular example.
An Exce spreadsheet is available on the course Moodle and/or MS Teams that has 30 minute household datafor approximately 100 houses in the Ausgrid network region of Sydney for a complete year.Each house hasmetered load (kWh over 30 minutes)for both what is termed General Consumption (GC)and Controlled Load(CL).GC measures all household electricity consumption other than controlled loads.The CLs are typically hotwater systems and/or poo pumps-which are electronically controlled through ripple control as instructed bythe distribution network service provider.CLs are separately metered because they can be flexibly dispatchedby the network operator and therefore pay a lower tariff(c/kWh)rate.Somewhere around half of NSWhouseholds have CLs although this is falling as off-peak hot water systems are replaced.Not all of the houses inthe dataset have CL.
The dataset also includes Gross (total)Generation (kWh over 30 minutes)from the household PV system.Whilethe Ausgrid data set has different capacity PV systems on each house we have standardized the PV system sizeto 6kW-the average PV system size across Australia these days.
You will analyse the house number that matches the last two digits of your student number-eg.if yourstudent number is s1234567 you willanalyse house 67.Note that some houses have very questionable datasuggesting metering errors or PV system failure -if that is the case for your house,please note this in yourreport,explaining the issue,and then use the next house number.Note that you must use the house datacorresponding with your student number or explain why you didn't-1 wanted to copy my friend's assignment isnot an acceptable answer and you will get zero marks for the question.
For your particular house,
i)estimate as best able from the 30 minute data over the year:
-highest GC demand(kW)and day(date day/month)and time it occurred (24 hour eg.17:00=5pm)
-average GC demand(kW)over the year
if your house has CL,
-highest CL demand(kW)and date (day/month)and time at which this occurred
-average CL demand (kW)over the year
-proportion of total household load which is CL over year(%)
-for all households,annual electricity bill for the house assuming no PV,GC tariff of 38c/kWh and CL tariff of14c/kWh
ii)For the PV system,estimate as best able from the 30 minute data over the year
-average PV generation (kW)across the year.
-peak net export of PV generation (kW)if any (that is,greatest PV generation exports to grid after removing GCand CL demand)and the day(date day/month)and time at which this occurred.
-annual electricity bill for the house given the consumption tariffs above,and an export tariff(when the PVgeneration exceeds total GC and CL load in a 30 minute period)of 2c/kWh.Note that self consumed PVgeneration saves the household the consumption tariffs it would otherwise be paying.

Again, I suggest you first graph the output for your house to ‘eye-ball its load and PV behavior before thenusing some of the available Excel spreadsheet functions to identify the factors above. Always apply a sanitycheck to your answers, and be sure to use the units suggested above.In particular, note that 1kWh consumed in30 minutes reflects a load consuming 2kW. You will need to change your metered data to get kW)
Be sure to put your results in a table. Please comment on your findings, and their implications for powersystem operation to meet residential load in VIC. Also discuss the potential role of controllable hot watersystems as a flexible storage resource to improve system-wide operation, and the performance of householdPV systems.

iii)Bonus Mark.
Assume the household has a 40kWh home BESS.It operates according to a very simple operationalstrategy.When PV generation exceeds total household demand it is placed into the BESS,up to the pointthat the BESS is fully charged.After that,any excess PV generation above total household load is exportedas it would be if there was no BESS.Conversely,when the household is consuming more energy than it isgenerating from PV,it takes power from the BESS rather than the grid,until the BESS is empty.Only whenthe BESS is empty does the household draw from the grid.

Estimate over the year for your household
the total kWh taken from the grid
·  the total kWh exported to the grid
peak demand kW drawn from the grid,and the date and time this occurred
peak export kW exported to the grid,and the date and time this occurred
What would be the annual electricity bill of the household assuming the tariffs above?
Should AEMO be encouraging home BESS on the basis that it makes power system operation easier for thelarge utility scale generation?Be sure to explain your answer.

You'l need to solve household operation for each 30 minute period over the year so you'll want some cleverformulas in Excel (or other code if solving in another modelling environment).I used nested IF functions inExcel that allow you to decide on BESS operation according to household total demand and PV in each 30minutes within the constraints of BESS state-of-charge.You'll need to add a BESS state of chargecalculation.I'd suggest you don't worry if you slightly overfill or have negative state of charge in any 30minute period due to your operating decisions (eg.You could assume iit's actually a 50kWh BESS but beingoperated conservatively).Otherwise,you get some rather complex decision making logic around what youdo within 30 minute periods when you fully charge or empty the BESS at some point within the period.Again,for simplicity,assume that the household never actually charges up off the grid(even though thatwould be a very sensible strategy when there jus isn't enough PV).Also,don't
Question 4:

Consider a very simplified version of the VIC generation fleet and State demand as a competitive electricitymarket as outlined in table 1 below.For convenience,you can assume that no generators have minimumoperating levels hence no fixed variable costs(big assumption as you'll see,those coal plants have a realminimum operating demand challenge at present)and that their incremental variable costs apply across theirentire operating range.Assume that there are no transmission constraints or losses,and ignore the existingtransmission interconnections between VIC and NSW,South Australia and Tasmania.
We assume that there are five major market participants in VIC as detailed in the table below.Each marketparticipant can offer one quantity/price pair into the market for each of its generation technologies.Note thatthe PV and wind generation and Battery Energy Storage Systems(BESS)in the state are bundled into generic,multiple owner,participants for simplicity,and because they are likely to be market price takers rather thanmakers (although this is really changing and we are now starting to see wind and solar and BESS starting toexercise market power).

The market operates at hourly intervals. The market operator AEMO bids its scheduled load forecast for eachhour into the market at a Market Ceiling Price(MCP) of $20,300/MWh. Note that there is one active demandmarket participant - an aluminium smelter(Portland) which generally runs at 600MW 24/7 but bids all itsdemand such that it completely turns off if the price goes above $2000/MWh.AEMO does not include thisplant in its forecasts of scheduled demand.

Assume for simplicity that the wind and solar are market participants who don't earn income from PPAs butinstead only the market price, and that the hydro and BESS is offered into the electricity market at the prices intable 1.There are big assumptions here, reflecting the opportunity cost of the water in different hydroschemes and energy arbitrage strategy for the BESS respectively(more on this in later weeks).

The market operates at hourly intervals. The market operator AEMO bids its scheduled load forecast for eachhour into the market at a Market Ceiling Price(MCP) of $20,300/MWh. Note that there is one active demandmarket participant - an aluminium smelter(Portland) which generally runs at 600MW 24/7 but bids all itsdemand such that it completely turns off if the price goes above $2000/MWh.AEMO does not include thisplant in its forecasts of scheduled demand.

Assume for simplicity that the wind and solar are market participants who don't earn income from PPAs butinstead only the market price, and that the hydro and BESS is offered into the electricity market at the prices intable 1.There are big assumptions here, reflecting the opportunity cost of the water in different hydroschemes and energy arbitrage strategy for the BESS respectively(more on this in later weeks). 

Consider three possible hourly scenarios of renewable generation and scheduled demand:
1)Wind generation of 1500MW,solar of 1000MW and scheduled market demand of 900MW(1500MWif you include the aluminum smelter).This might be a sunny spring day with rooftop PV reducingscheduled demand to be met by utility generation.

2)Wind farms at 300MW and utility PV at OMW with 9400MW of scheduled demand(10,000MWincluding the aluminium smelter).This could wellbe a relatively still but very cold winter evening withlots of electrical heating.

3)A spring night with 1500MW wind,no utility solar of course,and scheduled demand of 5400MW(6000MW including the aluminium smelter).

Solve the following cases o market dispatch for each of the three renewables/demand scenarios:

(i)None of the generation participants are engaging in strategic(gaming)bidding into the market.What isthe market clearing price(MCP)(S/MWh),dispatch(MW)and surplus/profit($'000/hr)for eachgeneration participant (for each of their generation options and in total).Use the actual operating cost ofthe hydro rather than the opportunity cost when calculating their profits.Also calculate the profit of theBESS assuming that it has 100%round trip efficiency(no losses)and pays an average $15/MWh whencharging.Please use tables to present these answers.Don't forget what the battery storage plants mightbe doing-will they be charging,doing nothing or charging for each scenarioand how might that impacton price.

ii)Participant AGL has now decided to attempt to exert its market power to improve profits.Assume thatthe other generators and the aluminium smelter willcontinue 'preference revealing'bidding.Assume alsothat AGL has excellent knowledge of the true maximum power outputs and incremental variable costs(and opportunity costs)of alltheir competitor's generating units,and the scheduled demand MW andprice responsive behaviour of the smelter.How might AGL offer into the market(quantity,price)tomaximise its profits under each of the different renewable energy and demand scenarios?What wouldthen be the market clearing price,dispatch and profits for each generation participant.Again,think ofwhat the BESS might be doing during the exercise of market power.And what about that price responsivealuminium smelter demand?

iii)Instead of participant AGL attempting to exert market power,it is now Snowy Hydro which is attemptingstrategic bidding in order to increase its profits.Assume that all the other generation participants and theBESS use 'preference revealing'bidding nto the market.How might Snowy offer into the market(quantity,price)to maximise its profits under the different renewable energy and load scenarios?Whatwould then be the market clearing price,dispatch and profits for each generator?

Be sure to put your results in tables as appropriate.Please comment on your findings,and their implications formarket prices and the exercise of market power in the VIC region of the Australian NEM given growingpenetrations of variable wind and solar generation,and growing BESS deployment.Also,what role might moreprice responsive demand play in the exercise of market power by generators.And can you see circumstanceswhere wind and solar plants as well as the BESS might try to exercise some limited market power themselves?