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DEPARTMENT OF

ECONOMICS

Autumn Semester 2021-22

ECN21003 International Economics

Answers should not exceed 3000 words, including any tables, figures or appendices but excluding the bibliography. Any material beyond the word limit will not be marked.

Please format the assignment using double spaced text, Arial font size 12, minimum 2 cm margins (as pre-set in the submission template). The bibliography may be in single spaced text.

https://librarydevelopment.group.shef.ac.uk/referencing/harvard.html

When inputting equations, diagrams etc. these can be handwritten and then produce an image of these (using a smartphone, digital camera or scanner) which can then be inserted into a Word document. Alternatively, for equations you can use the equation editor function in Word.

Coursework must be submitted online through Blackboard using Turnitin and by no later than 12.00 noon on Monday 17th January 2022. Coursework submitted after the 12.00 noon deadline will have a late penalty applied. Details about the late penalty policy can be found in the Student Handbook.

You must attach a submission template coversheet to the front of your work when submitting it to Turnitin to avoid a 5% penalty. Full details of this policy can be found in the Student Handbook.

Please ensure that you have read the assessment guidelines provided in the Student Handbook, including the guidance about submission requirements, extension requests and extenuating circumstances and the use of unfair means.

Questions

1. Explain the expected impact of trade on income distribution within a country according to Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson theory. How far can this approach explain the effects of trade on inequality within countries today? (You may focus on evidence from a particular country or group of countries.)

2. The United Kingdom has left the European Union and the European Single Market. Explain the basis of the forecasts of the likely economic impact of this development.

3. “A century ago, world income and productivity levels were far less divergent than they are today, so it is all the more remarkable that so much capital was directed to countries at or below the 40 percent income level (relative to the United States). Today, a much larger fraction of the world’s output and population is located in such low-productivity regions, but a much smaller share of global foreign investment reaches them.” (OBSTFELD and TAYLOR, 2004). How would you explain this finding?

4. Explain the conditions under which countries would gain from forming a monetary union. Examine how far the euro-zone meets these conditions in practice.

Suggested Reading

Indicative reading is given below. Students are also encouraged to do their own literature searches

Question 1

Anderson, A., Tang, P. and Wood, A. 2006. Globalization, co-operation costs, and wage inequalities, Oxford Economic Papers, 58: 569-595.

Autor, D., D. Dorn and G. Hanson 2013. The China syndrome: local labor market effects of import competition in the US. American Economic Review, 103: 2121–68.

Basco, S. and Mestieri, M. (2019) ‘The world income distribution: the effects of international unbundling of production’ , Journal of economic growth, 24(2), pp. 189–221. Summary here: https://voxeu.org/article/new-globalisation-and-income-inequality

Bivens, J. 2007. Globalization, American Wages, and Inequality: Past, Present, and Future. EPI Working Paper #279: http://www.epi.org/publication/wp279/

Crino, R. 2007. Offshoring, Multinationals and the Labour Market, Journal of Economic Surveys, 32(2): 197-249.

Feenstra, R.C. and Taylor, Alan M. (2017) International economics. Fourth edition. New York: Worth Publishers, chapters 4 & 7 .

Freeman, R. 1995. Are your wages being set in Beijing?, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(3): 15-32.

Freeman, R. 2006. The Great Doubling: The Challenge of the New Global Labor Market’:

http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/webfac/eichengreen/e183_sp07/great_doub.pdf

Freeman, R. 2008. ‘Labor Market Imbalances: Shortages, Surpluses, or What?’ in J. S. Little (ed.), Global Imbalances and the Evolving World Economy:

https://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf51/conf51d.pdf

Grossman, G. and Rossi-Hansberg, E. 2006) ‘The rise of offshoring: It’s not wine for cloth anymore’ , available at:

http://www.rrojasdatabank.infowww.rrojasdatabank.info/offshoringGrossman.pdf

Grossman, G. and Rossi-Hansberg, E. 2008. A simple theory of offshoring, American Economic Review, 98: 1978-97.

IMF 2007. World Economic Outlook: Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy, Washington: International Monetary Fund, chapter 5.

Krugman, Paul 2008. Trade and wages, reconsidered, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1: 103-54.

Milberg, W., and D. Winkler. 2010. Economic insecurity in the new wave of globalization: offshoring and the labor share under varieties of capitalism, International Review ofApplied Economics, 24(3): 285–308.

Molnar, M., Pain, N. and Taglioni, D. (2008) Globalisation and employment in the OECD, OECD Economic Studies, No. 44

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Employment Outlook, 2017 edition, chapter 3; relevant chapters:

Rodrik, Dani 1997. Has Globalization Gone Too Far?. Washington: Institute for International Economics.

Snower, D., A. Brown, and C. Merkl. 2009. Globalization and the Welfare State, Journal of Economic Literature, 47(1): 136–58.

University of Texas Inequality Project at:

http://utip.gov.utexas.edu/

Wood, Adrian 1994. North-South Trade, Employment and Inequality. Oxford: Oxford University Press, esp. chs 1.

Wood, Adrian 1995. ‘How trade hurt unskilled workers, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9 No. 3, p.57-80.

Wood, Adrian 1997. Openness and Wage Inequality in Developing Countries: The Latin American Challenge to East Asian Conventional Wisdom. The World Bank Economic Review, 11(1), 33-57.

Wood, Adrian 2002. Globalization and Wage Inequalities: A Synthesis of Three Theories, Review of World Economics, Vo. 138 No. 1.

Wood, Adrian 2007. ‘Heckscher-Ohlin in theory and practice’ , Oxford Department of International Development Working Paper, available at:

https://www.qeh.ox.ac.uk/publications/heckscher-ohlin-theory-and-reality-0

Wood, Adrian and Ridao-Cano, C. 1999. Skill, Trade and International Inequality, Oxford Economic Papers, 51 89-119.

Question 2

Bank of England (2018) EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-and-fi nancial-stability

Cambridge Econometrics (2018) Preparing

https://www.camecon.com/what/our-work/preparing-for-brexit/

for Brexit:

Coutts, K., Gudgin, G. and Buchanan, J. (2018), How the Economics Profession Got it Wrong on Brexit, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge, Working Paper No. 493.

Non-technical version of their critique of gravity estimates:

https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/defying-gravity-a-critique-of-estimates-of-the-econ omic-impact-of-brexit/

Dhingra, S. et al., 2017. The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects. Economic policy, 32(92), pp.651–705.

Ebell, M. and Warren, J. (2016), ‘The long-term economic impact of leaving the EU’ , National Institute Economic Review, 236, pp. 121-38.

Emmerson, C., Johnson, P. and Mitchell, I. (2016), The EU Single Market: The Value of Membership versus Access to the UK (London: Institute for Fiscal Studies). Link:

https://ifs.org.uk/publications/8411

Gudgin, G., Coutts, K., Gibson, N., and Buchanan, J. (2017), The Macro-Economic Impact of Brexit, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge, Working Paper No. 483.

Hantzsche, A. and Young, G. (2019) ‘The Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson’s New Brexit Deal’ , National Institute Economic Review, 250(1), pp. F34–F37.

HM Treasury (2016), The Long-term Economic Impact of EU Membership and the Alternatives. Cmnd. 9250.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/understanding-economic-impact-bre xit

Kierzenkowski, R., N. Pain, E. Rusticelli and S. Zwart (2016), ‘The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision’ , OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 16.

Minford, Patrick, 2019. The effects of Brexit on the UK economy. World economy, 42(1), pp.57–67.

Sampson, Thomas. 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31 (4): 163-84.

Springford, J. Cost of Brexit. Estimates here:

https://www.cer.eu/research/cost-of-brexit

UK in a Changing Europe, The economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals:

https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit16.pdf

Van Reenen, J. (2016), ‘Brexit’s Long-Run Effects on the U.K. Economy’ , Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, pp. 367-83.

On the single market and Brexit:

Mayer, T., Vicard, V. and Zignago, S. (2019) ‘The cost of non-Europe, revisited’, Economic policy, 34(98), pp. 145– 199.

Baldwin, R. (1989) ‘The Growth Effects of 1992’ , Economic policy, 4(9), pp. 247–281.

Question 3

Adir & S. Whitaker, Do rich countries lend to poor countries?

https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/11/23/do-rich-countries-lend-to-poor-countries/

Akhtaruzzaman, M., Hajzler, C. and Owen, P.D. (2018) ‘Does institutional quality resolve the Lucas Paradox?’ , Applied economics, 50(5), pp. 455–474.

Alfaro, L., Kalemli-Ozcan, S. and Volosovych, V. (2008) Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries? An empirical investigation, Review of Economics and Statistics, 90 (2):

347-68.

Azémar, C. and Desbordes, R. (2013) Has the Lucas Paradox been fully explained, Economics Letters, 121(2): 183-87.

Bryant, R. C. (2006) Asymmetric demographic transitions and North-South capital flows, Brookings Discussion Papers in International Economics, No. 170. Available at:

https://www.brookings.edu/research/asymmetric-demographic-transitions-and-north-south-ca pital-flows/

Caselli, F. and Feyrer, J. (2007) The marginal product of capital, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122 (2): 535-568.

Causa, Orsetta, Cohen, Daniel and Marcelo Soto (2006) Lucas and Anti-Lucas Paradoxes, CEPR working paper No; 6013

Chatterjee, S. and Naknoi, K. (2010) The marginal product of capital, capital flows, and convergence, American Economic Review, 100(2): 73–77.

Chirinko, Robert S. and Mallick, Debdulal, The Marginal Product of Capital: A Persistent International Puzzle (2008). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 2399.

Cohen, D and Soto, M. (2002) Why are poor countries poor? A message of hope which involves the Resolution of a Becker/Lucas Paradox. OECD Development Centre Technical Paper No. 197, available from:

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/8/42/1962709.pdf

Davies, James B.. "2003-5 Empirical Evidence on Human Capital Externalities." Economic Policy Research Institute. EPRI Working Papers, 2003-5. London, ON: Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario Available at:

https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=economicsepri_wp

Ferreira, A. (2011) On the Differences Between the Marginal Product of Capital Across Countries, Manchester School, 79(3): 455

Gros, D. (2013) Why does capital flow from poor to rich countries?:

http://www.voxeu.org/article/why-does-capital-flow-poor-rich-countries

Ju, J. and Wei, S,J. (2006) A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows. IMF Working Paper No. 06/178.

Keskinsoy, Bilal, Lucas Paradox in the Long-Run (2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2966086 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2966086

M. Lindquist, J. Sauermann & Y. Zenou, Why worker productivity is contagious

https://voxeu.org/article/peer-effects-and-contagious-productivity

Lowe, M., Papageorgiou, C. and Perez ‐Sebastian, F. (2019) ‘The Public and Private Marginal Product of Capital’ , Economica, 86(342), pp. 336–361 Summary version:

https://voxeu.org/article/public-and-private-marginal-product-capital

Lucas, Robert E., Jr. (1990) Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? American Economic Review, 80(2): 92-96.

Obstfeld, M. and Taylor, A. (2004) Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis and Growth, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 7

Okada, K. (2013) ‘The interaction effects of financial openness and institutions on international capital flows’ , Journal of macroeconomics, 35(1), pp. 131– 143.

Olufemi A Aluko and Muazu Ibrahim, (2019) Does institutional quality explain the Lucas Paradox? Evidence from Africa, Economics Bulletin 39(3): 1687-1693

Prasad, E., Rajan, R. and Subramanian, A. (2007A) Foreign capital and economic growth, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No 1: 153-209.

Reinhart, C., and Rogoff, K., (2004) Serial Default and the “Paradox” of Rich-Poor Capital Flows, American Economic Review, 94 (2), 53-58.

Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K., and Savastano, M. (2003) Debt Intolerance, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 1-62.

Roos, Jerome E. 2019. Why Not Default? : The Political Economy of Sovereign Debt.

Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press. Introduction here:

https://jeromeroos.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Introduction_Why_Not-Default.pdf

Snyder, T. J. (2013) Increasing Returns, Institutions and Capital Flows, Eastern Economic Journal, 39: 285-308.

Thönnessen, R., Gundlach, E. The size of human capital externalities: cross-country

evidence. Public Choice 157, 671–689 (2013).

Baldwin and Giavazzi Voxeu/CEPR books – pdf on Blackboard

Boltho, A. and Carlin, W. (2013) ‘EMU's Problems: Asymmetric Shocks or Asymmetric Behavior?’ , Comparative economic studies, 55(3), pp. 387–403.

Cabral, R. (2010) The PIGS’ External Debt Problem. VoxEU.org, 8 May:

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5008

Nauro Campos & Corrado Macchiarelli, A history of the European core and its periphery:

How an optimal currency area forms. 12 March 2018:

https://voxeu.org/article/history-european-core-and-its-periphery

Stephen Cecchetti, Kim Schoenholtz 22 May 2020 The euro area in the age of COVID-19

https://voxeu.org/article/euro-area-age-covid-19

Christodoulakis, N. (2009) ‘Ten Years of EMU: Convergence, Divergence and New Policy Priorities’ , National Institute Economic Review, No. 208: 86-100.

Mai Dao, Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani, Moving closer? Changing patterns of labour

mobility in Europe and the US 01 December 2013:

https://voxeu.org/article/labour-mobility-europe-and-us

Grauwe, P. de (2016) Economics of monetary union. Eleventh edition. Oxford, United

Kingdom: Oxford University Press. Pdf of chapter 2 is available on Blackboard.

Feenstra, R.C. and Taylor, Alan M. (2017) International economics. Fourth edition. New York:

Worth Publishers, chapter 21.

Felipe, J. (2011) Unit Labour costs in the Eurozone, Levy Institute Working Paper No. 651:

http://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/unit-labor-costs-in-the-eurozone

Kurt A. Hafner & Jennifer Jager, ‘The Optimum Currency Area Theory and the EMU’ , Intereconomics, Volume 48, 2013 · Number 5 · pp. 315–322:

https://archive.intereconomics.eu/year/2013/5/the-optimum-currency-area-theory-and-the-

emu/

Hein, E. and Truger, A. (2005) ‘European Monetary Union: Nominal Convergence, Real Divergence and Slow Growth?’ , Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 16(1):

7-33.

Journal of Common Market Studies, Symposium on Economic and Monetary Union and the Crisis of the Eurozone, Volume 50, Issue 6 (November 2012).

The Journal of Economic Perspectives , Vol. 27, No. 3, Summer 2013; symposium on the Euro, especially papers by Kevin H. O'Rourke and Alan M. Taylor, and by Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martín Uribe.

SYMPOSIUM: EUROPEAN UNION, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 35 No. 2 Spring

2021

The Crisis in the Euro Area. Papers Presented at a Bank of Greece Conference, Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 39, Part B, Pages 233-460 (March 2014)

Lane, Philip R. (2006) ‘The Real Effects of European Monetary Union’ , Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol 20, Number 4, pp. 47-66.

Lane, Philip R. (2012) ‘The European Sovereign Debt Crisis’ , Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 26, Number 3, pp. 49-67.

Lane, Philip R. (2012) on diabolic/doom loop

https://voxeu.org/article/banks-and-government-bonds-love-story

Valentina Milano, Pietro Reichlin 23 January 2017 Risk sharing across the US and Eurozone: The role of public institutions

https://voxeu.org/article/risk-sharing-across-us-and-eurozone

Mody, A. (2018) Eurotragedy : a drama in nine acts. New York, NY: Oxford University Press. OECD. Economic Survey: Euro Area, Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (Regular issues)