ECOM118 Practical Valuation 2020-21
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ECOM118 Practical Valuation
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Question 1
A hedge fund manager is valuing a company that is expected to generate sales from year 1 onwards as given in Table 1.
Table 1
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
€70000 |
€72000 |
€68500 |
€71000 |
€73000 |
Expected EBIT margin (% sales) in year 1 is 8%. Additional assumptions are:
• EBIT margin (% sales): increases 35 basis points (0.35%) per year until year 3, including year 3, and decreases 15 basis points (0.15%) per year in years 4 and 5
• Depreciation: 5% of sales, each year
• Recurrent Capex: 7% of sales for year 1, with this percentage decreasing 55 basis points (0.55%) per year until year 4 (e.g., 6.45% of sales for year 2)
• Change in working capital: 14% of yearly change of sales
• Tax rate: 25%
• Target capital structure: debt/(debt + equity) ratio of 55%
• Asset beta: 1.25
• Risk-free rate: 2%
• Equity risk premium: 6%
• Debt spread: 4%
To answer the following questions make plausible assumptions if necessary. In case you prefer, standard characters can be used (e.g b rather than β, capital_sigma rather than ∑).
a. Compute the Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCF) for the period from year 1 until year 5, including year 5. Explain your answer.
[10 marks]
b. The way taxes are estimated when computing the FCF reveals an important characteristic of the FCF model. Which one? Explain your answer.
[10 marks] “Continues on next page…”
c. Why is equity beta different from asset beta in case the company makes use of debt? Explain your answer.
[10 marks]
d. Given the target capital structure and the set of assumptions reported below Table 1, what is the discount rate to be used in this valuation exercise? Explain your answer.
[10 marks]
e. The expected nominal growth rate of FCF in perpetuity is 1.5%. What is the expected value of the company at the end of year 1? Explain your answer.
[10 marks]
Question 2
An investor is valuing the Company OUT which has 5000 equity shares and the following expected key financial measures for year-end 2021 (Table 2):
Table 2
Enterprise value |
€70000 |
Level of cash |
€8000 |
Level of interest bearing debt |
€22000 |
Minority interest |
€3750 |
Financial Investments |
€2300 |
2021 Book Value Per Share (BVS) |
€5.25 |
Additionally, the investor has collected the following information about a set of comparable listed companies with similar leverage and other relevant fundamentals (Table 3):
Table 3
Company |
Current market price per share (€) |
BVS 2021 (€) |
B |
9.0 |
7.50 |
C |
10.7 |
8.50 |
D |
8.3 |
9.20 |
Round your computations to one decimal place (e.g. present 1.56 as 1.6).
a. What is the expected 2021 price-to-book (PBV) multiple of company OUT implied in investor’s expectations? Explain your answer.
[10 marks]
b. Considering the information of the expected 2021 PBV multiple of the set of comparable companies, what is your conclusion about the relative valuation of company OUT? Explain your answer.
[10 marks]
c. Some fundamental variables impact on the PBV multiple and should be taken into account when carrying out a relative valuation exercise based on this multiple. Give two examples of such variables, explaining your answer (no need for computations).
[10 marks]
Question 3
A company is building a distribution centre, with investment cost (year zero) of €200 million and present value (year zero) of cash flows of €180 million. However, the company has the option to sell this distribution centre at the end of next year. The company estimates that the market value of the distribution centre, within 1 year, will be €240 million if the market evolves favourably, and €120 million if the market evolves unfavourably. The risk- free interest rate is 2% per year and the project gross value is assumed to follow a multiplicative binomial process. The market value of the shadow asset is given by S. Currently S = 12 and the estimation is that, within 1 year, S = 19 and S = 7 for the scenarios of favourable and unfavourable market evolution, respectively.
Present your answers rounded to the first two decimal places (e.g. 1.555 is rounded to 1.56) and in order to compute relevant inputs assume compound annual growth. To answer the following questions make plausible assumptions if necessary. In case you prefer, standard characters can be used (e.g b rather than β , capital_sigma rather than ∑).
a. What is the real option in this project? Explain your answer.
[2.5 marks]
b. What is the expanded NPV of the project? Explain your answer.
[10 marks]
c. What should be the investment decision for this project? Explain your answer.
[2.5 marks]
d. Consider the following statement “If an analyst decides to use real options methodology to value a project, estimating a standard Discounted Cash Flow model is useless”. Do you agree with this statement? Explain your answer.
[5 marks]
2021-12-26