STA258H5F: Statistics with Applied Probability
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Course Outline – Fall 2021
STA258H5F: Statistics with Applied Probability
Course Description
A survey of statistical methodology with emphasis on the relationship between data analysis and probability theory. Topics covered include descriptive statistics, limit theorems, sampling distribution, point and interval estimation both classical and bootstrap, hypothesis testing both classical and bootstrap, permutation tests, contingency tables and count data.
Prerequisite: STA256H5 or STA257H5. Exclusion: STA248H1 or STA255H1 or ECO227Y5. Students who lack a pre/co-requisite can be removed at any time unless they have received an explicit waiver from the department.
Course Textbook
Mathematical Statistics with Applications (7th Ed.) by Wackerly, Mendenhall and Scheaffer. ISBN- 13:978-0-495- 11081- 1
Click here for University of Toronto Bookstore’s permalink for the eBook.
Additional Resources
Probability, Statistics, and Data, A Fresh Approach using R. Darrin Speegle and Bryan Clair. Access available from: https://mathstat.slu.edu/~speegle/_book/preface.html
Probability, Statistics, and Data Analysis. Alison Gibbs and Alex Stringer. Access available from:
https://awstringer1.github.io/sta238-book/
Rfor Data Science. Garrett Grolemund & Hadley Wickham. Access available from:
https://r4ds.had.co.nz/
Statistical Computing
We will use R, which is a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics. We will interact with R through RStudio, which is an Integrated Development Environment. See download instructions in Quercus section titled R Resources. You can instead use U of T JupyterHub for teaching site: https://jupyter.utoronto.ca/hub/login and access the cloud version of RStudio. Moreover, we require that you use R Markdown to turn your statistical analysis into high quality PDF document.
Learning Objective
By the end of this course, you will be able to:
• Recognize the sampling distribution of a sample statistic.
• Make statistical inference by using interval estimation and performing hypothesis testing.
• State statistical assumptions and know how to detect and address violations.
• Choose and apply appropriate statistical analysis techniques to address research questions and hypothesis tests.
• Employ a variety of appropriate statistical computations and analyses in R.
• Clearly interpret, explain and communicate the results of statistical analyses in context of data.
• Recognize strength and weakness of statistical analyses and formulate constructive critiques.
Course Assessment and Deadlines
Type |
Description |
Due Date |
Weight |
Quiz 1 |
Weeks 1, 2, & 3 Course Modules |
October 8th |
10% |
Quiz 2 |
Weeks 4, 5, & 6 Course Modules |
November 5th |
10% |
Quiz 3 |
Weeks 7, 8, & 9 Course Modules |
November 26th |
10% |
Course Project |
Data Analysis Project |
On-going |
35% |
Final Exam |
Cumulative Final Exam |
December Exam Period |
35% |
Total |
100% |
Important Note
You must ensure that you have a reliable internet connection for being able to engage in the course and complete the course assessments. Quizzes and final examination will be held in Quercus. You will be informed by means of Quercus announcements about the online administration of the quizzes and the final exam.
Course Modules
There are 12 weekly modules designed in our Quercus course shell. Each module will have four pages including lecture notes, textbook readings with suggested exercises from the text and some supplementary practice questions, tutorial presentation slides, and a discussion board.
Lectures
Weekly lecture contents are pre-recorded and will be posted with their accompanying lecture slides in Quercus prior to each week’s lecture meetings. During the lecture meetings, we will actively practice the week’s lecture contents. These practicum sessions will cover additional examples based on the lecture contents. We recommend that you review the lecture slides, watch the lecture recordings, and attend the weekly practicum on a regular basis.
Textbook Problems
On a weekly basis, we will assign a set of exercises from the course textbook and will post supplementary exercises, but they are not graded. We recommend that you work regularly on these questions before you refer to their solution. If you need help clarifying any questions visit teaching team’s office hours in Zoom to seek help.
Quizzes
There are three quizzes scheduled in this course. Each quiz is scheduled on Friday evening between 8:00 PM to 9:00 PM. Quizzes will be held in Quercus. You will be informed by means of Quercus announcements about the online administration ofthe quizzes. Each quiz counts for 10% ofyour course grade. There is no makeup quiz. If you miss a quiz, the weight of your missed quiz will be moved to your final exam. You must also record your absence on ACORN on the day of the missed quiz or by the day after at the latest.
Any request to have a quiz remarked must be emailed to the course instructor (not TA) within three days of the grades being posted. Please ensure to put STA258 in the subject line ofyour email. Your email must include your full name, student number. Your request must include a detailed written justification referring to your work/answer(s) and the relevant course material to be considered. This means that you must provide a specific, clear, and concise reason when you describe a possible error in marking or omission by the marker. Re-mark requests without a specific reason will not be accepted. Please note that your entire quiz may be re-marked when submitting a re-mark request.
Tutorials
There are 11 tutorials scheduled in the course, starting on Thursday, Sept. 16th. Tutorials are facilitated by your Teaching Assistant in Zoom. Prior to each tutorial, refer to a previous week’s module in Quercus. For instance, for the first tutorial, you will refer to the course module for week 1. Review the lecture notes, work on the suggested textbook and provided practice questions, and attend tutorials on a regular basis. Your tutorial instructor (course teaching assistant) will review course contents covered for the week’s module and will facilitate discussions.
Please make sure you are registered for a tutorial section on ACORN. Since there is a tutorial enrollment limit for each tutorial section, you can only participate in the tutorial and its group activities that are assigned for the tutorial section you are registered.
Tutorial participation is important aspect of the course. You will be grouped in a smaller group within your tutorial and will communicate with your group to work on the course project.
Data Analysis Project
There is an on-going group project in this course. Within your tutorial section, you are grouped in a smaller group of 4 to 6 students to work on analysing a real data set. The purpose ofthe course project is to provide you with an opportunity to connect with your peers in this course, discuss and communicate statistical concepts with them. In your small groups, you will practice using R and RStudio to conduct appropriate statistical methods to analyze a real data and write about the results of your analysis within the context of provided data.
There are seven steps involved in the course project. Step 1 is concerned with your group formation and declaration of shared responsibilities. Aligned with the expectations ofthe course project, each member ofthe group, will declare their shared responsibility, that is the task each member of group will undertake for the project. All members ofthe group must agree on the task that each member will take to complete their part in the course project.
Step 2 is concerned with conducting exploratory data analysis. You will write a report based on the statistical results that you obtained and will focus on effective communications of the results. Write a report that tells the story of your analysis. Your report should also have a conclusion that summarizes what you have found. Imagine that you are writing a report that other students in the class will want to read; this is the audience you are aiming for. Include your code somewhere in your report; this can be next to your output, or you can move it to an appendix of your report if you think that makes it read more smoothly. R Markdown will be used to produce a PDF document ofyour report. Instructions will be provided on how to use R Markdown. Step 3 is concerned with assessing your self and your peers in your assigned group regarding the work that you and your peers have invested in completing project’s steps 1 and 2. A rubric will be provided on how to consider your assessments.
Step 4 is concerned with conducting statistical inferences. You will investigate relationships among variables and will use statistical inference methods that you have learned how to run in this course
(e.g., t-test, regression), and as far as the data permit, answer the statistical questions, using appropriate graphs and checking of assumptions to support your analysis. Once again, you will focus on the effective communication ofyour statistical analysis and will write a report using R Markdown to produce a PDF document of your report. Step 5 is, once again, concerned with assessing your self and your peers in your assigned group regarding the work that you and your peers have invested in completing step 4 of the course project. A rubric will be provided on how to consider your assessments.
Step 6 is concerned with a 10-minute voice-over video-presentation (e.g., PowerPoint, Prezi, Infographic, Padlet, mind map, concept map) of your data analysis. Before you create your presentation, we recommend that you refer to the guide that we will post in Quercus on how to create your video-presentation using U of T MyMedia. We will also provide a rubric for what you need to include in your video and what constitutes a good presentation. All students in each group must contribute to creating a voice-over video-presentation.
Step 7 is concerned with providing your perception regarding working in a group and the extend to which you gained any valuable experience to collaborate with your peers on grappling with data. You will complete an anonymous survey in Quercus to describe your opinion regarding the course project.
Since this is a group project, it is expected that all group members receive the same mark for steps 2 and 4. However, if it becomes evident that a group member did not stay on their assigned task as agreed by all group members throughout the course project, then that group member will not be receiving the same grade as all other group members. Therefore, consult with the course instructor if you experience any time zone conflicts that makes it difficult for you to connect with your peers. You must inform the course instructor at the beginning of the term.
The course project accounts for 35% ofyour course grade. Table below describes the due date and weight for each step ofthe course project.
Step |
Description |
Due Date |
Weight |
1 |
Group Formation and Declaration of Shared Responsibilities |
Sept. 26th, 11:00 PM in Quercus |
4% |
2 |
Exploratory Data Analysis Report |
Oct. 24th, 11:00 PM in Quercus |
10% |
3 |
Self- and Peer-assessment |
Oct. 24th, 11:00 PM in Quercus |
2% |
4 |
Statistical Inference Report |
Nov 21st, 11:00 PM in Quercus |
10% |
5 |
Self- and Peer-assessment |
Nov 21st, 11:00 PM in Quercus |
2% |
6 |
Video Presentation |
Dec 5th, 11:00 PM in Quercus |
5% |
7 |
Course Survey |
Dec 5th, 11:00 PM in Quercus |
2% |
Total |
35% |
Penalties for Lateness
Late submissions for any of the steps of the course project will not be accepted.
Final Exam
Final exam is scheduled during the December examination period by the Office of Registrar. It will be held in Quercus. You will be informed by means of Quercus announcements about the online administration ofthe exam. The final exam will cover the entire course. During the exam, you can use the course textbook and course materials posted in our Quercus course shell. The final exam accounts for 35% of your course grade. Final exam grades will not be posted in Quercus. Re-mark requests for the final exam must be made through Office of Registrar.
Students who cannot complete their online final examination due to illness or other serious causes must file an online petition within 72 hours of the missed examination. Late petitions will NOT be considered. Students must also record their absence on ACORN on the day of the missed exam or by the day after at the latest.
Course Communication: Office Hours and Discussion Board
It is our goal to create a welcoming and engaging class community of learners. We value your input about any aspects ofthe course structure. We encourage you to connect with your peers, course TAs, and instructors. Member of the teaching team offer weekly office hours in Zoom. You are welcome to attend any ofthe weekly office hours and ask questions about course contents. Moreover, in order to facilitate a class community of learners, we will create weekly discussion forums. You can introduce your self to the class, post comments or ask questions about each week’s module.
Members of teaching team will be monitoring the discussion forums at specific times throughout week and will post comments/responses as they are able. Note that responses will not be immediate; teaching team will endeavour to post replies within 48 hours. Teaching team may also choose to respond globally to questions on similar topics rather than reply to each individual post.
In each week’s discussion forum, please feel free to reply to your peers’ posts or provide information if you have an answer to a peer's question. One of the main goals of this course is to foster peer-to-peer learning, that is to help you build connections with your peers. You will also receive support from the teaching team throughout the term.
Email Policy
If you need to communicate privately with Prof. Asal, you may do so by email. Your email must originate from University of Toronto email account (your @mail.utoronto.ca e-mail account) when you contact Prof. Asal by email and to be ensure that your message does not automatically go to a junk folder. Be sure to include your full name and student number in the body of your email as well the course code (STA258) in the subject line of your email. You will not get a response ifyou email from other email addresses or do not follow the email policy.
Before you send an e-mail, please make sure that you are not asking for information that is already on the course outline, Quercus page for the course, and course announcements, or questions about the course material that are more appropriately discussed during office hours or discussion board. If you do not receive a response, this may be the reason. In general, note we are unable to answer technical questions about the course material by e-mail, and instead we encourage you to visit online office hours or post your questions in the discussion board to support our class community.
Course Material
This course, including your participation, will be recorded on video and will be available to students in the course for viewing remotely and after each session. Course videos and materials belong to your instructor, the University, and/or other source depending on the specific facts of each situation and are protected by copyright. In this course, you are permitted to download session videos and materials for your own academic use, but you should not copy, share, or use them for any other purpose without the explicit permission ofthe instructor. For questions about recording and use of videos in which you appear please contact your instructor.
2021-12-09