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HUDM 4122 | Spring 2024

Probability and Statistical Inference

▮ COURSE DESCRIPTION

This course provides an introduction to probability and statistics for students in social sciences. The fundamentals

of probability theory will be illustrated with examples drawn from behavioral and social sciences. Topics include elementary probability theory, conditional probability and independence, random variables, probability

distributions, and statistical inferences using p-value approach, confidence interval approach, and hypothesis testing approach.

The focus of this course is on basic statistics and research tools, which are useful in conducting experiments,

describing data, and making inferences about the population. It is the fi rst course of a series of statistics courses   offered in the Department of Human Development. Therefore, it is not expected that students will leave the class  knowing all the basic research tools, but this course will lay the groundwork for future study. By the completion of the course, students will be familiar with ideas of statistical modeling, data analysis and interpretation.

▮ MEETING TIMES

This class is designed to deliver instruction in both an asynchronous and synchronous manner, with typically

web-based assignments, discussion board, and other web-assisted learning tools. The instructor will recap

information during online zoom meetings -- it will be every Thursday (3:00PM - 4:00PM EST), starting from January 18th. Note that CAs offer online office hours. Assignments and exchanges will be structured around a weekly

schedule. The "Weekly Material" section under the "Modules" tab contains a document listing the topics and

readings for the whole semester by week, in addition to a set of week-by-week folders (for example, this week's folder is labeled "Week One (1/16 - 1/22)". Each week's folder contains a list of course work activities (readings,

lecture notes, etc.), along with additional resources to use during your study. You should use the information in the weekly folders to create a personal schedule so that all of the work listed in the folder is completed by the end of    that week.

▮ TEXTBOOK

Mendenhall, W., Beaver, R., & Beaver, B. (2012).  Introduction to Probability and Statistics (14th ed.).  New York: Duxbury Press.

*** Either 12th or 13th edition will be ok to use. It may be much cheaper if you get it online. If you use the earlier editions, the page numbers for reading assignments may not correspond to what I assign.

▮ COURSE REQUIREMENTS

Grades in this course will be based on a total number of points earned. Grades will be based on completion of the homework assignments (30%), on the scores of the midterm exam and the  nal exam (35% each). Attendance will not be counted as a part of your grade.

Examinations

70 % of Grade

Exam Date:

Midterm  3/7 - 3/9

Final 5/2 - 5/4

There will be two exams. Both exams are open book, open notes. The fi nal exam is cumulative. Examinations will consist almost entirely of problems whose solution requires calculations. It is highly recommended that you bring a calculator.

You will not be asked to derive formulas, but will be required to perform numerous calculations.  You are

expected to demonstrate how to solve the exam problems; you should show that you know what the calculator  is doing, as if you performed the calculations by hand. Show your work to obtain full credit (given your answer is correct) or partial credit (given your answer is incorrect).

If you know in advance that there are compelling and unusual circumstances that might interfere with your performance on an examination, please inform the instructor. A time will be scheduled for a make-up

examination to accommodate those who inform the instructor in advance of a need for one.

Homework Assignments

30% of Grade

Due Date: See the

Schedule below

Five homework assignments (5-6% each) will be given and graded. Homework assignments will be distributed on the marked dates (*) and due by a week from the day the homework was issued. It is intended to provide you

with practice at solving problems like those that you will encounter as a behavioral and social scientist and that, of course, will be on the examinations. All work must be completed and turned in on time (Late assignments    will not be accepted). You may consult the instructor, TA, tutors, classmates, or others while working on the

homework assignments, but what you turn in should be in your own words. All work should be lucid, orderly, and self-managed.

You can complete and submit your homework in one of 2 different ways.

Option 1: Use Statistical Notation symbols. This requires the use of the "Math Equation" editor that is embedded in our course site (click the 5th icon on the 2nd row of the toolbar). It is self-explanatory.

Option 2: Spell out the Statistical Notation. In this option, for example, instead of using the symbol "Σ", you would type "sigma". A "Glossary of Statistical Notation Terms" is available for your reference, located in the "Modules" section.

Please show your work so that we may give you partial credit if applicable. Please round all numbers in your answers to FOUR decimal places.

You are only allowed to submit your homework ONCE. Be sure you have completed every question and have typed all of your answers into the homework module answer spaces to your satisfaction before hitting the     "submit" button, as the homework module will not allow multiple submissions.

Although you can only submit once, the homework assignments are set so that you can enter, logout and re-enter them and therefore, you DO NOT have to remain online while working on your homework. It is

suggested that you access and print out the homework, work out the problems on paper, log back onto the Internet and into our course site and then access the homework module again, type your answers in the

appropriate answer spaces and then hit submit.

TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES:  If you experience technical diculties submitting your Homework, you MUST immediately email your CAs AND Prof. Lee.

 ADVICE

As your instructor, I will be happy to discuss any specific needs and accommodations with you, please see me during office hours or by appointment.

▮ TC POLICIES

Privacy

Students who receive or are provided access to a recording of a class may not download the recording to a

computer or other electronic device on which it would be accessible to others and may not distribute the recording or any portion or transcript of it to anyone else. We are part of a learning community and students must respect

each other’s privacy. Students may talk about personal or sensitive topics and it is important to the course that we have a safe space to share openly. If a student is found to have shared a recording in violation of this rule, the

student will be subject to sanctions for academic and general misconduct, including a failing grade for this course. The instructor has the option of sharing the class session recordings with other members of your class. Any other  use of the recording will require your expressed written permission.

Accommodations

The College will make reasonable accommodations for persons with documented disabilities. Students are

encouraged to contact the Office of Access and Services for Individuals with Disabilities (OASID) for information

about registration. You can reach OASID by email at oasid@tc.columbia.edu, stop by 301 Zankel Building or call

212-678-3689. Services are available only to students who have registered and submit appropriate documentation.

As your instructor, I am happy to discuss specific needs with you as well.  Please report any access related concerns about instructional material to OASID and to me as your instructor.

Incomplete Grades Policy for HUDM Courses

In HUDM courses, the grade of Incomplete must be discussed and agreed upon with the instructor before the end of the semester. Typically, Incompletes are given when a student has attended the course and completed most

assignments (including midterm and homework), but needs extra time for projects or assignments towards the end of the semester due to documented medical or family emergencies. In these cases, the remaining assignments or    exams are typically completed within 3-4 weeks of the end of the semester. In rare cases, a student who has

completed all assignments and participated during the fi rst half of the semester but has experienced a documented family or medical emergency can also take an Incomplete. In these cases, the course should be retaken in its

entirety within 12 months. Incompletes are not typically given for students who miss exams without prior approval, do not have adequate documentation, or who have not completed most assignments and exams.

For the full text of the Incomplete Grade policy please refer to the Incomplete Grades policy.

Student Responsibility for Monitoring TC email account

Students are expected to monitor their TC email accounts. For the full text of the Student Responsibility for Monitoring TC email account please refer to Student Responsibility for Monitoring TC Email Account  .

Religious Observance

It is the policy of Teachers College to respect its members’ observance of their major religious holidays.  Where

academic scheduling conflicts prove unavoidable, students will not be penalized for absences due to religious

reasons, and course instructors will work with students on alternative means for satisfying academic requirements. If students and instructors cannot reach a suitable arrangement, they should consult the appropriate Program

Director or Department Chair.  If necessary, students or instructors may take the matter to the Office of the Provost for additional appeal. Please see the Religious Observance policy.

Sexual Harassment and Violence Reporting

Teachers College is committed to maintaining a safe environment for students. Because of this commitment and

because of federal and state regulations, we must advise you that if you tell any of your instructors about sexual

harassment or gender-based misconduct involving a member of the campus community, your instructor is required to report this information to the Title IX Coordinator, Janice Robinson.  She will treat this information as private, but  will need to follow up with you and possibly look into the matter. The Ombuds Officer is a confidential resource

available for students, staff and faculty, including matters concerning “Gender-based Misconduct” . “Gender-based misconduct” includes sexual assault, stalking, sexual harassment, dating violence, domestic violence, sexual

exploitation, and gender-based harassment. For more information, see Columbia University’s Sexual Respect policy. The TC Ombuds Officer may be reached at [email protected] or 212-678-4169.

Emergency Plan

TC is prepared for a wide range of emergencies. After declaring an emergency situation, the President/Provost will   provide the community with critical information on procedures and available assistance. If travel to campus is not   feasible, instructors will facilitate academic continuity through Canvas and other technologies, if possible. It is the    student’s responsibility to ensure that they are set to receive email notifications from TC and communications from

their instructor at their TC email address. Within the fi rst two sessions for the course, students are expected to review and be prepared to follow the instructions stated in the emergency plan. The plan may consist of

downloading or obtaining all available readings for the course or the instructor may provide other instructions.

Academic Integrity

Students who intentionally submit work either not their own or without clear attribution to the original source,

fabricate data or other information, engage in cheating, or misrepresentation of academic records may be subject to charges.  Sanctions may include dismissal from the college for violation of the TC principles of academic and

professional integrity fundamental to the purpose of the College.