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ECON 523, Econometrics

Due: 11:59 PM, Dec.6, 2023

Econometrics Research Proposal (Paper)

Background

Before you begin your research project, think about “what”, “why’’, and “how”. Your paper should answer an economic question in which you are interested. It is OK to have insignificant results. Read Using Econometrics, A Practical Guide 7^th Edition Chapters 3 and 11 for more information. You need to have at least 60 observations and 3 or more explanatory variables for your model estimation. The last two class period will consist of short presentations of you results.

Paper Structure

I. Title page. Come up with a title for your proposal and create a title page.

II. Abstract. This section summarizes the topic, methodology, and your main initial findings. It    should appear on your title page.

III. Motivation and Introduction. This section should state the nature and objectives of the project along with a brief literature review.

IV. Description of the model. You should write out the econometric model that you plan to estimate and discuss the expected impact of the exogenous variables in your model.

V. Data description and model estimation. Describe the dataset you are using by providing summary statistics of important variables. Use the techniques developed in class to analyze your data and estimate your model. Your dataset needs to be attached with your proposal too.

VI. Preliminary results. Your results should be reported and discussed and should include your parameter estimates, standard errors, t-statistics, F-statistics, and adjusted R^2. Run tests for autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, and multicollinearity as needed. Interpret the results of these tests and correct any econometric issues you uncover.

VII. Conclusions. Summarize and discuss the topic, methodology, and your initial findings. Suggestions ideas for future research or how your current model might be improved.

VIII. Appendix. Additional regression results can be included in this section.

IX. Bibliography. Cite all your sources, including the textbook used in your analysis and referenced in your literature review.

Paper Checklist

While there is no specific length requirement for your paper, the expectation is that your analysis will include the following. The final rubric will follow the paper structure and checklist.

_______ Introduction: Describe your research question and include any supporting evidence from other articles, etc.

_______ Theoretical model and hypothesized signs: For example, the theoretical model for a simple demand equation would be:

(-) (+)  (+) (-)

Q_Demanded = f( Price, Income, Price of substitutes, Price of complements, etc. )

_______ Data description: This should include a verbal description of the source(s) of the data, the number of observations, and basic descriptive statistics for each variable, include a table of summary statistics which you can refer to in your verbal description.

_______ Empirical model to be estimated: including a description as to why you chose a particular functional form for each variable, for example:

Y = B₁ + B₂ ln X₂ + B₃ (1/X₃) + B₄ time + B₅ X₂² + ε_i

_______ Estimation and results: including estimated coefficients, standard errors, t-statistics, R-squared, adjusted R-squared, F-statistic, Durbin-Watson test statistic. If you have several regressions to report, we suggest you make a table.

_______ Additional tests of the empirical model: tests for autocorrelation (time series), heteroscedasticity (cross-sectional), and/or multicollinearity as needed.

_______ Final estimated model: may be the same as above, unless there are econometric issues found in the tests. Then must correct for those problems and re-estimate the model.

_______ Interpretation of the final estimated model: including an interpretation of each coefficient (Do the signs agree with you’re a priori assumptions) and tests of significance. Are there any theoretical concerns for omitted variable bias?

_______ Concluding remarks: Ideas for future research, here you should discuss how you would go about re-estimating or expanding the model to correct for potential theoretical issues or empirical issues you found with your current model.

If you haven’t done so you should look at an academic article e.g. American Economic Review (AER), or Journal of Economic Perspectives format your paper similarly, including citations, tables, etc. Do not simply copy and paste Stata and Excel tables, they must be properly labeled and easy to follow. Finally, use headings and subheadings in your paper, the bold terms above would be appropriate.

Deadlines

Dec.6, 2023 Research Proposal Due

Paper Resources

Data sources for various topics that you might find interesting:

Resources for Economists www.rfe.org

National Bureau of Economic Research* www.nber.org

FRED St Louis Fed fred.stlouisfed.org

Bureau of Transportation Statistics www.bts.gov

Bureau of Justice Statistics www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs

Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov

Census Bureau www.census.gov

State labor information www.bls.gov/bls/ofolist.htm

The National Center for Education www.nces.ed.gov

US macroeconomic time series data economagic.com

National Health Statistics www.cdc.gov/nchs/

World Health Organization www.who.int/health_topics/en/

NHS www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/stprofiles.htm

United Nations unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/internatlinks/sd_natstat.htm

OECD www.oecd.org

A search engine for financial data sources www.fisher.osu.edu/fin/osudata.htm

Wharton Research Data Services Wharton Research Data Services (upenn.edu)

Consumer Expenditure Survey Homepage www.bls.gov/bls/ofolist.htm

Time series data library pkg.yangzhuoranyang.com/tsdl/

Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research ICPSR (umich.edu)

UW’s Data & Information Services Center Data and Information Services Center (DISC) (wisc.edu)

*  Note: The NBER does a lot of really excellent empirical research.  The papers on this site might be a bit technical but

browse through their titles for ideas.

Reference Management Software**

Citation management software allows you to create databases of citations (books, journal articles, web sites, etc.) for use in your proposal. The software then facilitates the insertion of these citations within a research paper as in-text references, footnotes, or endnotes, and the creation of a formatted bibliography using a citation style of choice (e.g., APA, MLA, Chicago, etc.).

You can’t go wrong choosing either of these tools and you can switch between tools, though it may be less convenient the longer you use one tool and the more file attachments and references you collect. For more information on choosing Zotero, Mendeley, or EndNote see https://libguides.wustl.edu/choose and if you have questions, consider emailing our support staff at [email protected].

www.zotero.org/support/quick_start_guide

www.mendeley.com/guides

Past Research Topic Examples

Writing Guides**

Chaubey, V. (2018). The Little Book of Research Writing. ‏CreateSpace Independent Publishing.

Dudenhefer, P. (2014). A Guide to Writing in Economics. Duke University.

McCloskey, D., & Ziliak, S. (2019). Economical writing. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

Neugeboren, R., & Jacobson, M. (2005). Writing Economics. Harvard University.

** Note: Use of writing guides and reference software is optional but recommended for your proposal. Past instructors of this course strongly recommend the Economical Writing guide, similar guides are available online and in your textbook.