DESC 626 Simulation Modeling Fall 2023
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DESC 626
Simulation Modeling
Fall 2023 (October 25- December 6) Session B
Course Description
Computer modeling simulations play a crucial role in all branches of business decision-making. This course systematically explores methodological issues in connection with computer simulations. Special emphasis is put on the relation between models and simulations as well as on the role of computers in the practice of modeling and simulation for decision making. A simulation as used in this course is the execution of a model, represented by a computer program that gives information about the system being investigated. The simulation approach of analyzing a model is opposed to the analytical approach, where the method of analyzing the system is purely theoretical. As this approach is more reliable, the simulation approach gives more flexibility and convenience. The activities of the model consist of events, which are activated at certain points in time and in this way affect the overall state of the system. The points in time that an event is activated are randomized, so no input from outside the system is required.
Course Learning Outcomes
Upon successfully completing this course, students will be able to:
1. Describe how simulation models are used to improve organizational decision-making.
2. Develop models based on organizational problems, apply appropriate solutions, and interpret results.
3. Investigate and test models’ assumptions, limitations and alternative model structures.
4. Identify which models should be used to solve for particular problems in particular settings.
5. Communicate results of modeling and analysis in oral and written formats to fully articulate the managerial ramifications of implementing a model.
Textbooks + Reading
Main Textbook/Reading:
Ragsdale, C. (2022). Spreadsheet modeling and decision analysis: Apractical introduction to business analytics (9th ed.). ISBN: 978-0-357- 13209-8. Cengage. Many formats of this textbook exist. The link below is for ane-book.https://www.cengage.com/c/spreadsheet- modeling-and-decision-analysis-a-practical-introduction-to-business-analytics-9e- ragsdale/9780357132098/
Frontline Solvers (2021), Analytic Solver Simulation User Guide. Frontline System Inc.
https://www.solver.com/sites/default/files/FrontlineSolversUserGuide2021.pdf.
Use the provided link to access the material through Pepperdine Library.
Pachamanova, D., & Fabozzi, F. (2010). Simulation and optimization in finance: Modeling with MATLAB, @RISK, or VBA. John Wiley & Sons.
https://pepperdine.on.worldcat.org/oclc/674689249
Rees, M. (2015). Business risk and simulation modelling in practice: Using Excel, VBA and @RISK. John Wiley & Sons. https://pepperdine.on.worldcat.org/oclc/910475657
Verschuuren, G. (2013). Excel simulations. Holy Macro! Books.
https://pepperdine.on.worldcat.org/oclc/861481225
Instructor’s Notes
Three in-class exams will be administered including Quizzes and Final. The Final will be administered in Week 7 of class and Quizzes in Week 4 and 5. The quizzes may contain multiple- choice questions, short answer problems, or True/False questions. Content will be drawn from the prior material, readings (Quiz 1 will be drawn from the content in Week 1, 2 and 3 and Quiz 2 will be drawn from the content in Week 4). Failure to complete the exams during the class sessions will result in a zero unless alternate arrangements have been made at least 24 hours prior to the start of the exam or an emergency has caused your absence. This graded element is individual work. All problems will be graded using a rubric provided in courses.
Assignments will be given in Week 3 and 6 respectively. They will be uploaded in Courses prior to the above referenced weeks. Each assignment contains 1-2 analytics problems/scenarios that you must complete and upload to the Assignments link by the following Friday at 10:00 am pacific. Late work will not be accepted. All problems will be graded using a rubric provided in Courses. Although you may discuss these problems with others, the work you submit must be your own (do not exchange electronic files) and the rubric will penalize those who simply “work together” and turn in largely the same solution.
Graded Coursework
You will be graded on the following assessments:
Participation: Every session includes group- or individual-based class activities relevant to the topic of the week. Students are expected to actively participate/present their work to the class or instructor. Regular attendance is critical for successful completion of this course. Since class discussions and interactions are integral parts of the learning experience, each student is expected to arrive on time and come prepared to share their experience and insights. We expect students to attend all class sessions. Missing 3 class sessions will result in failing the course. Your participation grade will be positively affected by your consistent attentiveness in class activities (lectures, Q&A sessions, discussions, etc.). Consequently, it will be negatively affected by arriving late, leaving early, unexplained absences, inattentiveness, and use of electronic devices for non- class activities.
Assignments: Two assignments will be given in Week 3 and 6. The due date for each assignment is presented in the following table. Assignments must be submitted individually in Courses.
|
Date Available (Pacific) |
Due Date (Pacific) |
Assignment 1 |
Week 3: November, 8 |
November, 10 @ 10:00 am |
Assignment 2 |
Week 6: November, 29 |
December, 1 @ 10:00 am |
Group Project: A group project will be assigned in Week 1 which must be uploaded in Courses. In this project, students will explore the application of simulation in business analytics. The question will be discussed in the first session. The instructor will review submissions for originality. Although you may discuss these problems with other groups, the work you submit must be your own (do not exchange electronic files) and the rubric will penalize those who simply “work together” and turn in largely the same solution. This project is evaluated according to the following items.
. Summary Report:
Each group needs to submit a ONE-page summary of the group project. This summary includes; i) application domain (please refer to the Group Project Detail from Courses), ii) objective, iii) software to implement the project and iv) name of group members (first and last name). Deadline for submission is Week 2, Friday, 3 November @ 10:00am. Late submissions will not be accepted. This part carries 5% of your overall grade. .
. Group Presentation:
Project findings to be presented in Week 5. Each group must prepare a 15 minute GROUP presentation (6 slides: each slide includes one topic covered in your final report). This part carries 10% of your overall grade .
. Final Report:
Students are required to submit their final report in Week 5. Please refer to Group Project Detail from Courses for detailed sections that need to be covered in your report. Deadline for submission is Week 5, Friday, 24 November @ 10:00am. Late submissions will not be accepted. This part carries 25% of your overall grade.
Quizzes: Take the following quizzes in class.
. Quiz 2: Week 5 (Covering content in Week 4)
Final Exam: Take the cumulative Final Exam in class, Week 7, covering material from the entire term. Detailed Study Guide to be distributed in class Week 6.
Schedule
Note: This schedule is subject to change with notification.
Week (Date) |
Topics |
*Reference Material (refer below for detail) |
Tasks/Due Dates |
1 (10/25) |
Introduction to Decision Modeling, Probability and Distributions |
Ragsdale: Chapter 1 P&F: Chapter 3 (page 51- 81) |
|
2 (11/1) |
Introduction to Simulation Modeling, Monte Carlo Simulation, Analytic Solver |
Rees: Chapter 6 (page 107- 116) Verschuuren: Monte Carlo Simulation Frontline Solver, Page 12- 24, 31 |
. Group Project Summary Report Due |
3 (11/8) |
Introduction to Simulation Optimization in Analytic Solver and Modeling LP problems |
Ragsdale: Chapter 2 and 3 Frontline Solver, Page 144- 151, 167- 170, 425-426 |
. Assignment 1 Due |
4 (11/15) |
Simulating for Risk Analysis and Application of Simulation Optimization |
Ragsdale: Chapter 12 Frontline Solver, Page 109- 128 |
. Quiz 1 |
5 (11/22) |
Simulating Financial Systems |
Verschuuren: Page 64-80 |
. Quiz 2 . Group project Presentation . Group Project Final Report Due |
6 (11/29) |
Simulating Queuing Theory and Systems |
Ragsdale: Chapter 13 |
. Assignment 2 Due . Final Exam Preparation |
7 (12/6) |
Practical Simulation Modeling |
|
. Q&A . Final Exam |
Ragsdale: Spreadsheet modeling and decision analysis
https://www.cengage.com/c/spreadsheet-modeling-and-decision-analysis-a-practical-introduction-to- business-analytics-9e-ragsdale/9780357132098/
Frontline Solver:https://www.solver.com/sites/default/files/FrontlineSolversUserGuide2021.pdf.
Rees: Business risk and simulation modelling in practice:
https://pepperdine.on.worldcat.org/oclc/910475657
P&F: Simulation and optimization in finance
https://pepperdine.on.worldcat.org/oclc/674689249
Verschuuren: Excel simulations
https://pepperdine.on.worldcat.org/oclc/861481225
*Other online resources will be used and discussed during the lecture.
Grade Breakdown
Item Weights (%) |
|
Assignments ● Assignment 1 ● Assignment 2 |
5% 5% |
Quizzes ● Quiz 1 ● Quiz 2 |
10% 10% |
Group Project Summary Report |
5% |
Final Simulation Group Project |
25% |
Group Project Presentation |
10% |
Class Participation |
10% |
Final Exam |
20% |
Total |
100% |
Classroom Policies
Electronic Devices
During class time, the use of mobile devices (laptops, tablets, cellphones, etc.) is allowed only for taking notes and participating in sanctioned class activities. The use of devices for non-sanctioned activities is not allowed.
Required Technology
Students are expected to have the following installed and operable prior to the first-class meeting:
● Frontline Analytic Solver Platform (highly recommended): The instructions on how to download/install the software will be given in the first session of the class and in the Courses/Sakai platform. While you may use the standard Solver add-in in Excel, the textbook tutorials often reference examples using the Analytic Solver. This software “add- in” provides many more features that provide better execution and interpretation of optimization modelling such as sensitivity analysis. I strongly recommend using the Analytic Solver as there are analyses that would otherwise require more manual work when
using the add-in alone.
● PepperdineGmail account
● Google Meet, Hangouts, and Chat enabled on Gmail account ● Pepperdine Zoom account
● Microsoft office, Excel.
Attendance Policy
Merely being present/just showing up does not always mean learning has happened. Grades and earning points should be based on active participation because participation is linked to achievement of learning outcomes. Active participation in each class is expected. When you miss class, you miss important information. If you are absent, you are responsible for learning the material covered during class.
Resources for Student Success
Pepperdine Graziadio offers students a wide range of academic support resources designed to help students enhance their academic, writing, and communication skills and excel in the classroom.
Student Success Website
The Student Success website provides a variety of resources to support academic success, including:
● Citation resources in APA, MLA, and Chicago citation styles, including step-by-step tutorials, sample papers, and formatting guides
● Presentation resources for creating engaging and effective academic presentations and utilizing presentation technology
● Quantitative and Excel resources such as LinkedIn Learning courses, statistics tutorials, and Excel videos
Grammarly
All Graziadio students are provided access to a free, premium Grammarly subscription. Grammarly is an online grammar and spelling checker that improves written communication by helping users find and correct writing mistakes. It also functions as a plagiarism checker, helps students to identify the appropriate tone of their writing, and much more. Students will receive an email with a link to activate their free account during approximately the third or fourth week of their firstterm (after the add-drop period).
Linkedin Learning
The LinkedIn Learning Online Training Library at Pepperdine University is a professional development resource available to all students. LinkedIn Learning offers more than 15,000 online courses on a wide array of professional and creative skills and computer software, including time management, study skills, presentation technology, and group communication.
Library Services
Online library servicesare available through thePepperdine Libraries website, including access to databases and e-journals, interlibrary loan, Harvard Business Review articles, research guides, and synchronous research support with a Librarian.
Turnitin
This course may require electronic submission of essays, papers, or other written projects through the plagiarism detection service Turnitin ( http://www.turnitin.com). Turnitin is an online plagiarism detection service that conducts textual similarity reviews of submitted papers. When papers are submitted to Turnitin, the service may retain a copy of the submitted work in the Turnitin database for the sole purpose of detecting plagiarism in future submitted works. Students retain copyright on their original course work. The use of Turnitin is subject to the Terms of Use agreement posted on the Turnitin.com website. You may request, in writing, to not have your papers submitted through Turnitin. If you choose to opt-out of the Turnitin submission process, you will need to provide additional research documentation and attach additional materials (to be clarified by the instructor) to help the instructor assess the originality of your work. Please view the Pepperdine Turnitin policy. Deliverables that will use Turnitin include the Group Project, Assignment 1 and 2.
2023-10-26