Mathematics: Analysis and Approaches HL Exploration—initial planning

Form A

This form should be completed

and returned to your teacher by: 31st May 2021

Name: Chloe Fok

1. Area of interest

- Art

- Games

2. Topic

- Statistic and probability

- Modelling the probability of getting a 5 star character from the game - genshin impact

3. Reason of choice

I chose this project because Genshin Impact is a very popular game, and its gacha

mechanism (In gacha games, items such as cards and characters can be won through a  mechanism, like a toy vending machine where the items you get is completely random) is the most important part of the game.

By building a model, i can better understand the probability of players obtaining 5-star items in the game, and also help others better plan their game strategies.

4. Statement of the task

- The method of extraction:  determine what method to use for extraction, such as using original resin or other specific wishing items.

- Number of extractions: consider how many extractions to make, as the number of extractions affects the probability.

- Probability distribution: determine the probability distribution of 5-star items, so that it can be incorporated into the model for reference.

5. Mind map

6. Overall plan

1. Research and clarify the mechanism:

- guarantee mechanism

-“Up” character

-Constellations (sequential upgrades to Characters)

1. Data collection :

- secondary research

-look at videos of other people draw characters and recording them

- e.g probability of getting a five star character in a single draw

2. Data preprocessing:

- cleaning the data

- removing duplicates

- transforming the data into a suitable format for statistical analysis

3. Calculating:

- Probability/ E(x) of drawing five star (ignore UP or not) characters

- Probability/ E(x) of drawing five stars UP

- Probability/ E(x) of draw a C6 five star UP character

- generate distribution diagrams for the above

- Compare data

4. Data analysis:

- based on the data and diagram calculated above

5.Evaluation