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ECN6510: Microeconomic Analysis

Workshop 2: Choice Under Uncertainty and Insurance

This workshop will require you to consider the axioms of EUT, in addition to explore a range of mathematical problems relating to EUT.  There is also a paper to read which explores empirically whether individuals behave in a way predicted by EUTin the context of insurance markets.

The workshop will develop a range of transferable skills including: Numeracy and data; Problem solving; Translating knowledge; Critical thinking.

1.  Consider the Axioms of EUT.  Are they realistic?   Do individuals behave in this way in practice?

2.  An individual has a utility function given by U(w) = ln(w), where w denotes wealth. They have initial wealth of £200 and face the prospect of a loss of £150 with a probability of 0.2.

(i)        Is the individual risk averse?

(ii)      What is the maximum premium the individual will pay for insurance against this loss?

(ii)      What would the fair insurance be?

3.  What determines the slope of the iso-expected wealth line on Figure II in the Lecture Notes? What determines the slope of the indifference curve in Figure II?

4.  Consider two risk averse individuals, J and  K,  who  have twice  differentiable von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions J(x) and K(x), respectively. J′s utility function is given to be J(x)  =  g(K(x)), where g(. ) is a strictly increasing and strictly concave function, that is, g’ (. )  >  0 and g’’ (. )  <  0.  Prove that individual J is more risk averse than individual K  by the Arrow-Pratt measure of Absolute Risk Aversion.

5.  Consider the portfolio allocation problem with two states of the world.  The investor has initial wealth, w.  They allocate a to a risky asset which provides return TG   with probability q and return TB   in the bad state which occurs with probability 1 − q.  The investor invests the remaining wealth, w –  a , to a safe asset which has return, Tf .

Assume the investor has a logarithmic utility function, that is

U(W) = ln(W)

a)  Write down the mathematical statement of this portfolio problem and calculate the optimal value of a*.

b)  Does  the  investor  put  more/less/same  amount  in  the  portfolio  as  their  wealth increases?

Please read the following paper:

Cutler, D. M., Finkelstein, A., & McGarry, K. (2008). Preference heterogeneity and insurance markets: Explaining a puzzle of insurance. American Economic Review98(2), 157-62.

1.  Outline the predictions of Expected utility in the context of asymmetric information. 2.  What data do the authors analyse?

3.  Describe how do the authors test for asymmetric information?

4.  What are the dependent variables?

5.  What are the results?