OMGT1053 Assignment 3 Individual Quantitative and Qualitative Case Study
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OMGT1053 Assignment 3
Individual Quantitative and Qualitative Case Study
Instructions:
O This assessment task assesses your understanding of some quantitative techniques and problem-solving skills you learned from the course.
O This assessment task is worth 40 marks and contains two tasks (Task 1 and Task 2). Task 1 carries 20 marks while Task 2 carries another 20 marks.
O For this assessment task, you are required to prepare an Excel workbook and a simple Word report.
O The Excel workbook should comprise multiple worksheets showing the models, the regression analysis summary, the comparison of model performance, the decision tree, and the calculations you used to answer the task questions that require you to complete in Excel.
O The simple Word report should be mainly for the economic order quantity (EOQ) analysis and the answers to the qualitative questions. There is no recommended format for the report. You can answer the case questions directly without giving a summary of the case or introduction. Nevertheless, a proper report cover is expected. Answer to each question should start on a new page. The analysis should be in-depth and comprehensive. Up-to-date references should be used to support arguments.
O There is no recommendation for word length of the report, but you would need to write concisely yet comprehensively. Brevity can impact on the depth of the analysis and longwindedness can diminish clarity.
O For Task 1, there should be FOUR worksheets in the Excel workbook. The first two show the following two demand forecasting methods that you are required to use to forecast the demand of one of the popular products
- GeForce RTX 4090 graphic card - that the case company NVIDIA sells in the North and the South America markets.
• Moving average; and
• Static method.
O You need to label the tabs of the two spreadsheets clearly to make them self-explanatory.
O A worksheet showing the summary of the regression analysis for the static method should be included in the workbook. Again, label the tap clearly.
O Furthermore, another worksheet comparing the performance of the two forecasting methods using the key performance indicators (KPIs) mentioned in Task 1 Question (c) should be provided. The suggested table format in Task 1 Question (c) should be used. Again, label the tab clearly.
O Answer Task 1 Question (d) in the performance comparison table as well.
O The Word report should address Task 1 Question (e) and (f). To answer Question (e), some EOQ and total cost calculations are needed. To answer Question (f), it requires your own research and analysis.
O For Task 2, there should be FOUR worksheets in the Excel workbook showing the following:
• A decision tree showing the possible outcomes of the two
sourcing alternatives in the periods.
• Calculation of total net present value of one alternative.
• Calculation of total net present value of another alternative.
• Answer to Task 2 Question (c) in a comparison spreadsheet. The
suggested table format in Task 2 Question (c) should be used.
O Label the tab of each spreadsheet clearly.
O Again, the Word report should address Task 2 Question (d) through your
own research and analysis.
O Please note that for both the quantitative and the qualitative tasks, the marks received depends on full completion of the required steps and the accuracy of the results. In addition, clarity and details of the demand forecasting models, the decision tree, the calculations, and the comprehensiveness of the analysis for the qualitative questions are also important.
Task 1: Demand Forecasting for NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090 graphic card and
procurement planning for Amazon.com
Description:
Demand for GeForce RTX 4090 graphic card at NVIDIA from its North and South America markets for the last 4 years are as follows:
Year Quarter Demand
2019 |
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 |
51,300 93,200 150,900 190,200 |
2020 |
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 |
69,300 116,300 185,700 246,900 |
2021 |
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 |
84,600 143,900 227,100 307,900 |
2022 |
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 |
107,000 175,100 278,500 361,300 |
Task Questions to be done in Excel:
a) Estimate the demand for 2023 (from Q1 to Q4) using a 4-quarter moving average method. (1 mark)
b) Estimate the demand for 2023 (from Q1 to Q4) using the static method. (3 marks)
c) Evaluate the MAD, MAPE and TS (i.e., the KPIs) in each case and compare them in the format as shown below. (2 marks)
Forecasting Method |
MAD |
MAPE(%) |
TS Range |
|
Min. |
Max. |
|||
Moving average method |
|
|
|
|
Static method |
|
|
|
|
Which method do you prefer? Why? |
|
Based on the findings from (b), which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? (1 mark) (Note: You can give your answer in the table of Question (c).)
Task Question to be done in Word:
e) Amazon.com sells GeForce RTX 4090 graphic card ordered from NVIDIA in North and South America. The average demand is 5,000 units each month. Amazon.com incurs a fixed order placement, transportation, and receiving cost of $4,500 each time an order is placed with NVIDIA. It also incurs a holding cost of
10 per cent of the unit cost of the product. The normal wholesale price is $600 per unit. Recently, NVIDIA offers all-unit quantity discount to its retailers to promote sales. The price schedule is as follows:
Order Quantity Per Lot Price Per Unit
1 – 2,500 $600
2,501 – 5,000 $540
Over 5,000 $510
1) What is the economic order quantity (EOQ) of GeForce RTX 4090 graphic card per lot for Amazon.com if there is no volume discount? (1 mark)
2) What is the total annual cost for Amazon.com assuming there is no volume discount from NVIDIA and the price per unit is $600? (1 mark)
3) What is the optimal order quantity if Amazon.com decides to take the volume discount? (2 marks)
4) What is the new total annual cost for Amazon.com upon taking the volume discount? (2 marks)
5) What is the annual saving for Amazon.com upon taking the quantity discount in comparison with the normal situation when there is no volume discount? (1 mark)
f) Conduct your own research and find out what the high-end graphics processing unit manufacturing (or computer gaming) industry usually does in forecasting demand. You may wish to analyse and discuss based on product value, product volume, and product flow as different product characteristics may require different methods to forecast the demand accurately. Give examples and use up-to-date references to support your arguments. (6 marks)
Task 2: Sourcing Decision for NVIDIA
Description:
NVIDIA is headquartered in Santa Clara, California, and became a major force in the computer gaming industry with the launch of the RIVA series of graphics processors in 1997. To date, the company has become the world’s leading graphic card manufacturer with a wide product range. In 2022, the production plant of NVIDIA’s major supplier in Delaware producing the graphic processing units (a type of specialised integrated circuit chip) was damaged by a big fire which would negatively impact on the production capability of the plant in the immediate future. The management of NVIDIA must decide to either stay with the supplier at Delaware or source from an alternative supplier in Mexico for the coming three years. In both options, NVIDIA will incur an initial cost (at present value) but expects to get some savings every year (in future value).
The expected cost of sourcing a new supplier in Mexico, upgrading its production equipment, and implementing the necessary quality assurance procedures is estimated at $5 million. Once in place, this partnership is expected to yield the savings in the next three years as shown in Table 1. The discount rate for this alternative is
3%.
Table 1 Expected savings from sourcing an alternative supplier in Mexico
|
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
|||
Expected savings |
$1,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,200,000 |
$1,700,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
Probability |
50% |
50% |
60% |
40% |
70% |
30% |
The other alternative is to stay with the current supplier at Delaware for the next three years. The cost to undertake a temporary urgent repair of the damage caused by the fire is estimated at $3 million. Production engineers and risk assessors have estimated the savings of this alternative as shown in Table 2. The discount rate for this alternative is 5%.
Table 2 Expected savings from staying with the supplier at Delaware
|
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
|||
Expected savings |
$0 |
$500,000 |
$500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
Probability |
70% |
30% |
50% |
50% |
30% |
70% |
Task Questions to be done in Excel:
a) Draw a decision tree in the Excel file to represent the two alternatives being
considered. Show all the nodes and the branches with proper labels,
probabilities and expected returns clearly. (5 marks)
b) Show clearly how the total present value of each alternative is calculated in
separate spreadsheets, one for one alternative. (8 marks)
c) Create a comparison sheet using the following format. Based on the findings
from (b), which alternative should NVIDIA pursue? Why? (1 mark)
Option |
NPV of Total Investment |
Sourcing from a new supplier in Mexico |
|
Staying with existing supplier in Delaware |
|
Which sourcing option would you recommend? Why? |
|
Task Question to be done in Word:
d) Conduct your own research and find out how the decision tree methodology can be applied to the risk analysis in the integrated circuit chip manufacturing industry. As the type of risks in the upstream, midstream, and downstream of an integrated circuit chip supply chain can vary, the tools for risk analysis (decision tree methodology can be one of them) may be different. You may wish to discuss the application in the different aspects of the supply chain operation based on the uncertainties involved. (6 marks)
2023-05-26