AS2021 DECISION ANALYSIS, 2022-2023
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BSc IN ACTUARIAL SCIENCE (Part II)
BSc IN FINANCE with ACTUARIAL SCIENCE (Part II)
BSc IN DATA ANALYTICS and ACTUARIAL SCIENCE (Part II)
BSc IN MATHEMATICS (Part II)
AS2021 DECISION ANALYSIS, 2022-2023
TAKE HOME COURSEWORK ASSIGNMENT
Submission deadline: Monday 13 March 2023
All students should contribute to an equal extent to the joint submission and the names of all students should appear on the single piece of coursework that is submitted. If any student does not pull his or her weight, please email me, at least 12 days before the submission deadline. I will then discuss the matter with that student to find a solution that is fair to all group members (including the student concerned).
Please include a couple of sentences at the end to describe how each of you shared out the tasks.
Question
Boldes plc distributes a variety of food products sold through grocery store and supermarket outlets. The company receives orders directly from individual outlets, with a typical order requesting the delivery of several cases of anywhere from 20 to 50 different products. The company has decided to automate the warehouse operation by installing a computer controlled order-pricing system, along with a conveyor system for moving goods from storage to the warehouse shipping area. The buildings director at Boldes has been given responsibility for managing the project of automating the warehouse. After consulting with members of the engineering staff and warehouse personnel, the director has compiled a list of activities associated with the project. The optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic times in weeks have been provided for each activity as well as information on “crashing” of activities.
This information is as follows:
|
Activity |
Description |
Immediate Predecessors |
|
A B C D E F G H I J |
Obtain vendor proposals Select vendor Order system Design new warehouse layout Layout warehouse Design computer interface Interface computer Install system Train system operators Test system |
- A B B D B C,E,F C,E G H,I |
|
Activity |
Optimistic |
Activity Times (weeks) Most Probable |
Pessimistic |
|
A |
6 |
8 |
16 |
|
B |
2 |
4 |
6 |
|
C |
8 |
10 |
24 |
|
D |
7 |
10 |
13 |
|
E |
4 |
6 |
8 |
|
F |
4 |
6 |
20 |
|
G |
4 |
6 |
8 |
|
H |
6 |
8 |
16 |
|
I |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
J
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
|
Activity |
Normal Cost (£) |
Crashed Activity Times (weeks) |
Crash Cost (£) |
|
A |
1,000 |
7 |
1,800 |
|
B |
1,500 |
2 |
2,700 |
|
C |
2,000 |
8 |
3,200 |
|
D |
5,000 |
7 |
8,000 |
|
E |
3,000 |
4 |
4,100 |
|
F |
8,000 |
5 |
10,250 |
|
G |
5,000 |
4 |
6,400 |
|
H |
9,000 |
5 |
12,200 |
|
I |
4,000 |
3 |
4,400 |
|
J
|
5,000
|
3
|
5,500
|
Advise the project manager on the prospects of completing the project in forty weeks.
Background documentation should include a drawing of a network of the project and relevant calculations, in particular:
• analysis of the probability of the project being completed within 40 weeks; an estimate of the number of weeks by which the expected project completion time needs to be reduced in order to provide an 80% chance of meeting the target of 40 week completion time; and
• the corresponding activity crashing decisions.
2023-04-14