STAT 231 – Statistics – Spring 2021


Instructors:

Emily Kozlowski, [email protected]

Dina Dawoud, [email protected]


Reference Materials: We will use the STAT 231 Course Notes. A pdf of the notes, as well as a pdf document containing the solutions to the Course Notes’ end of chapter problems are posted on the LEARN page. You may wish to purchase a hard copy of the notes, which can be purchased from the UW bookstore at: course notes and problem solutions.

Lectures: Lectures are provided as pre-recorded videos (with some text and concept check questions) in Mobius. As the videos are materially less than the 3 hours normally allocated to in person lectures, we strongly encourage you to invest the time in watching the videos, doing the concept checks, and making notes as you go through the lectures. Additionally, it is worthwhile to read through the course note sections corresponding to the lecture material each week (the sections are listed on the course schedule and weekly content pages in LEARN). The course notes provide more details and examples to supplement your learning.


Course Objectives/Intended Learning Outcomes:

This course provides a systematic approach to empirical problem solving which will enable students to critically assess the protocol and conclusions of an empirical study including the possible sources of error in the study and whether evidence of a causal relationship can be concluded. By the end of this course, students will be able to:

• use numerical and graphical summaries of a data set to describe the characteristics of a variate and to check the fit of a statistical model to the data;

• use the steps of PPDAC to identify both the objectives and possible sources of error in an empirical study and to critically evaluate the conclusions;

• identify the connection between attributes of a population and the parameters in the named distributions (Binomial, Poisson, Multinomial, Exponential, Normal);

• define and use the likelihood function to obtain point and interval estimates of the unknown parameters in a model particularly for the named distributions;

• use a pivotal quantity to construct a confidence interval for a parameter and interpret the confidence interval;

• use the likelihood function to construct and conduct a test of hypothesis for an unknown parameter in a model especially for the named distributions;

• interpret p-values and describe the connection to confidence intervals;

• define the properties of the Chi-squared and t distribution;

• define a Gaussian response model including simple linear regression;

• determine point and interval estimates and conduct tests of hypotheses for the parameters in a Gaussian model;

• describe the importance of randomization and pairing in experimental design be able to recognize whether a study design allows the researcher to conclude cause and effect; and

• use a goodness of fit test to test the fit of a model, independence in a two-way table, and equality of proportions for two or more groups.


Course Assessments:

• STAT 230 Review Quiz – 2%

• Five Assignments – best 4 of 5 count at 12% each (see schedule below)

• Midterm Project – 15%

• Final Project – 15%

• Final Quiz – 20% (24 hr period of availability to be set by the Registrar’s Office)

Review Quiz: STAT 231 relies heavily on material from STAT 230. It is important that you review this material on your own, especially if you have taken STAT 230 more than a term ago. To ensure you’re up to speed and ready for STAT 231, there will be a short, low-weight quiz on the material. The quiz opens at 2pm EDT on Tuesday May 18th and closes at 2pm EDT on Wednesday May 19th. Once you start the quiz, there is 60-minute time limit. A list of important topics to review from STAT 230 is posted on the LEARN page here.

Assignments: There are 5 assignments. Each assignment consists of a Mobius component and a Crowdmark component.

The Mobius component will be open for 24 hours, but there is a 60-minute time limit once you start the quiz and you have 1 attempt. The Mobius component will follow a linear format. This means that after you answer a question you cannot return to it. We will provide details of the quiz questions in advance to help you prepare for this format.

The Crowdmark component is released 10 days before the deadline, and is due at the same time the Mobius component closes. The Crowdmark component will include analysis of real data in R and will require you create your own code and comment on the results. Crowdmark submissions must be typed and submitted as a pdf. You can use word with its equation editor (some documents on this are posted on LEARN) and then save it as pdf, or use LaTeX, whichever you are more comfortable with. In addition to submitting in Crowdmark for marking, you must submit your pdf to a LEARN dropbox to facilitate the running of your assignment through plagiarism detection software.

The allocation of Mobius vs Crowdmark weight within each assignment may vary with each assignment and will be announced when the assignment is released. Even though only your best 4 assignments count towards your final grade, we strongly encourage you to complete all 5 as they are important learning opportunities. Further, given the flexible grading scheme, there will be no shifting of weight for a missed assignment due to illnesseven if you intentionally skipped an earlier assignment. Lastly, you must complete at least 50% of the assignments with a grade of at least 50% to pass the course.

Midterm Project: This will be similar to the Crowdmark component of assignments. You will be analyzing a real data set in R: creating your own code, analyzing your results, and writing a final report. More details will be provided later.

Final Assessments: The final project will be similar to the midterm project, and the final quiz will be similar to the Mobius component of the assignments. Both will be due during the final exam period. The 24 hour period for the final quiz will be set by the Registrar’s Office. More details will be provided later.


Course Activities:

Piazza Polls: On Monday each week we will release a Piazza poll, which will consist of both “fun” questions for us to get to know each other and questions on course content. The poll will be open for 1 week. There is a 1% course bonus available if you participate every week by answering the poll, plus type written responses in the comments at least 2 times.

Welcome Survey: To help us get to know you a little better and understand your thoughts going into the course, we are conducting a welcome survey in LEARN. There is a 0.25% course bonus provided for completing this survey.

Bi-weekly Tutorials: These live sessions are held every two weeks on Fridays from 2:00 – 3:30 pm EDT (1.5 hour duration). During the tutorial we will present a short review of the past two weeks’ content, work through the solutions to a few problems from the course notes or elsewhere, and provide time for Q&A. The sessions are hosted on Webex and will be recorded for those who cannot attend live.

R tutorials: To help prepare you for the assignments and projects, we will post R “Tutorials” in the form of documents and videos explaining some sample code.

Practice Problems: We will post a list of suggested course note problems for each week of content. Attempting as many problems as possible is key to success. Further, for effective learning, solutions should only be referenced after a material attempt at a problem.


Contacting Us + Getting Help:

Discussion Board: We will be using Piazza for our discussion board this term. You can access our Piazza page here. Please adhere to the following rules for posting on Piazza:

• All questions regarding course material should be posted on Piazza. This includes questions on the lecture content, practice problems, Crowdmark assignments, and general logistics.

• You must use the following naming convention to title your post. Posts that do not follow this convention may be deleted and you will be required to repost. Select one of the following and replace the red text with the appropriate details:

Week X Lectures Topic,

Week X Course Notes Section Y Topic,

Assignment X Crowdmark Q#,

Logistics: Topic

Course Note Problem Q#

• Before posting a question, search the existing posts (made easier by the naming convention above!) to see if your question has already been asked by another student.

• Piazza will be set to read only mode during the 24 hour period the Mobius assignment is open (From 2pm EDT on a Tuesday to 2pm EDT on a Wednesday). If you have questions while Piazza is in read-only mode, please make a note of them and wait until it reopens to ask.4

• You are not allowed to post about Mobius assignment questions on Piazza, even after the assignment. As the questions are unique to each student, we will post some general comments on the Mobius quiz solutions after the deadline, but will not respond to individual inquiries on Piazza or by email.

• For Crowdmark assignment questions, please keep your posts limited to clarifying questions and general approach/hints. Questions that require sharing your detailed solutions or R code should be made a private post.

Email: Questions of a more personal nature related to the administration of the course can be emailed to Emily ([email protected]) directly.

Response time: You can expect a response from us within approximately 24 hours during the week. We do not monitor Piazza or Email in the evenings or on weekends.

Office Hours:

• Emily will hold office hours on Mondays from 10:00 – 11:00 am on Webex, which can be accessed from the following link (https://uwaterloo.webex.com/meet/eikozlowski)

• Dina will hold office hours on Tuesdays from 1:00 to 2:00 pm on Webex, which can be accessed from the following link (https://uwaterloo.webex.com/meet/ddawoud)

There will be no office hours the first week of classes or on Statutory Holidays.

Connecting: Despite the challenges in this difficult environment, we hope to connect on a personal level with you (and have you connect with each other)! Your participation in the weekly polls, tutorials, and office hours is greatly appreciated. To develop a community, we encourage you to make comments on the weekly polls, as well as respond to each other’s questions on Piazza. Additionally, if you are comfortable turning your video on during office hours or when asking questions in tutorials, we would love to get to know you!

Technical Issues and Remark Requests: Any technical issues with Mobius or Crowdmark should be sent to our Instructional Support Coordinator Matthew Babela at [email protected]. Only send an email if the problem is something on `our' end. If the issue is your responsibility, such as an internet connectivity problem, please review the information on “Missed Assessments/Illness” provided in this document under “Course Policies”. Taking screenshots of any issues is particularly helpful. Remark requests can be emailed to Matthew within 1 week of the feedback being released and must include the Remark Request Form posted on LEARN.


Course Schedule:

  Week
  Monday
  Tuesday
  Wednesday
  Thursday
  Friday
  Week 1
  May 10-14
  Week 1 Piazza Poll Live




  Week 2
  May 17-21
  Week 2 Piazza Poll
  Live A1 Crowdmark
  Released
  STAT 230
  Review Quiz
  Opens 2pm
  STAT 230 Review
  Quiz Due 2pm

  STAT 230 Review
  Quiz Feedback
  released 2pm
  Live Tutorial 2-
  3:30pm on 1st 2
  weeks of content
  Week 3
  May 24-28
  Week 3 Piazza Poll
  Live Victoria day-OFF
  A1 Mobius Opens 2pm
  A1 Mobius Closes 2pm
  A1 Crowdmark Due 2pm

  A1 Mobius
  Feedback Released 2pm
  Week 4
  May 31 – June 4
  Week 4 Piazza Poll
  Live A2 Crowdmark
  Released



  Live Tutorial 2-
  3:30pm on Week 3
  and 4 content
  Week 5
  June 7 - 11
  Week 5 Piazza Poll Live
  A2 Mobius Opens 2pm
  A2 Mobius Closes 2pm
  A2 Crowdmark Due 2pm

  A2 Mobius
  Feedback Released 2pm
  Week 6
  June 14-18
  Week 6 Piazza Poll Live
  A3 Crowdmark Released

  Midterm Project Released

  Live Tutorial 2-
  3:30pm on Week 5
  and 6 content
  Week 7
  June 21-25
  Week 7 Piazza Poll Live
  A3 Mobius Opens 2pm
  A3 Mobius Closes 2pm
  A3 Crowdmark Due 2pm

  A3 Mobius
  Feedback Released 2pm
  Week 8
  June 28-Jul 2
  Week 8 Piazza Poll Live
  A4 Crowdmark Released

  Midterm Project Due 2pm
  July 1-OFF
  July 2 -OFF
  Week 9
  Jul 5-9
  Week 9 Piazza Poll Live
  A4 Mobius Opens 2pm
  A4 Mobius Closes 2pm
  A4 Crowdmark Due 2pm

  A4 Mobius
  Feedback Released 2pm
  Live Tutorial 2-3:30pm on Week 7
  - 9 content
  Week 10
  Jul 12-16
  Wk 10 Piazza Poll Live
  A5 Crowdmark Released



  Live Tutorial 2-3:30pm on Week 9
  and 10 content
  Week 11
  Jul 19-23
  Wk 11 Piazza Poll Live
  A5 Mobius Opens 2pm
  A5 Mobius Closes 2pm
  A5 Crowdmark Due 2pm

  A5 Mobius
  Feedback Released 2pm
  Week 12
  Jul 26-30
  Wk 12 Piazza Poll Live



  Live Tutorial 2-
  3:30pm on Week
  11 and 12 content
  Week 13
  Aug 2-6

  Follows Monday schedule
  Follows Thursday Schedule
  Follows Friday
  Schedule-END


Course Policies:

1. Remark Requests: You may appeal the way an assignment was marked by submitting it to Matthew Babela at [email protected] within 1 week of it being returned. Your email must include a completed Remark Request Form, which is posted on LEARN.

2. Mobius assignment questions: You must not share your Quiz Questions. This includes on public websites, with classmates, or on Piazza. Sharing Quiz questions constitutes an Academic Offence. Note in particular that if you share a question from your Quiz with a friend, and they then post it to a public website, you will be held responsible. Further, you are not allowed to post about Mobius assignment questions on Piazza, even after the assignment. As the questions are unique to each student, we will post some general comments on the Mobius quiz solutions after the deadline, but will not respond to individual inquiries on Piazza or by email.

3. Missed assessments / Illness: You do not need to contact us if you miss an assignment, or if you encounter technical issues such as connectivity problems. The only exception is if you encounter a technical issue that is due to the services used by the course (such as Crowdmark or Mobius). If one assignment is affected by illness or other extenuating circumstances, this is unfortunate but this is also why the Crowdmark portion of assignments are released well in advance of the deadline and the grading scheme includes flexibility. This includes the scenario where you deliberately miss an assessment early in the term, then miss additional assessments later due to illness, technical issues, and so on. If you have concerns about the stability of your Internet connection, you are strongly encouraged to complete assessments more than one hour before the deadline. It is possible for one component of the assignment to receive 0 marks. The assignment grade will be the combined total grade with 0% for the missed component. The Midterm and Final Projects cannot be missed and their weight cannot be transferred.

4. Late Penalties: A late penalty will be applied to late submissions of Crowdmark assignment submissions, the Midterm Project, and the Final Project. This penalty will equal 10% of the total marks of that assessment for every hour your submission is late.


Mental Health Support:

The Faculty of Math encourages students to seek out mental health support if needed.

On-campus Resources:

• Campus Wellness https://uwaterloo.ca/campus-wellness/

• Counselling Services: counselling.serv[email protected]/ 519-888-4567 ext 32655

• MATES: one-to-one peer support program offered by Federation of Students (FEDS) and Counselling Services: [email protected]

• Health Services: located across the creek from the Student Life Centre, 519-888-4096.

Off-campus Resources:

• Good2Talk (24/7): Free confidential help line for post-secondary students. Phone: 1-866-925-5454

• Here 24/7: Mental Health and Crisis Service Team. Phone: 1-844-437-3247

• OK2BME: set of support services for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender or questioning teens in Waterloo. Phone: 519-884-0000 extension 213


Diversity and AccessAbility:

It is our intent that students from all diverse backgrounds and perspectives be well served by this course, and that students’ learning needs be addressed both in and out of class. We recognize the immense value of the diversity in identities, perspectives, and contributions that students bring, and the benefit it has on our educational environment. Your suggestions are encouraged and appreciated. Please let us know ways to improve the effectiveness of the course for you personally or for other students or student groups. In particular:

• We will gladly honour your request to address you by an alternate/preferred name or gender pronoun. Please advise us of this preference early in the semester so we may make appropriate changes to our records.

• We will honour your religious holidays and celebrations. Please inform us of these at the start of the course.

• We will follow AccessAbility Services guidelines and protocols on how to best support students with different learning needs. If you require academic accommodations to lessen the impact of your disability, please register with AccessAbility at the beginning of each academic term.


Intellectual Property:

Students should be aware that this course contains the intellectual property of their instructor, TA, and/or the University of Waterloo, including items such as:

• Lecture content, spoken and written (and any audio/video recording thereof)

• Lecture handouts, presentations, and other materials prepared for the course

• Questions or solution sets from any type of assessment

• Work protected by copyright (e.g., any work used by the instructor with permission of the copyright owner).

Sharing this intellectual property without the owner’s permission is a violation of intellectual property rights. For this reason, it is necessary to ask the instructor, TA and/or the University of Waterloo for permission before uploading and sharing the intellectual property of others online (e.g., to an online repository). Permission is also necessary before sharing the intellectual property of others from completed courses with students taking the same/similar courses in subsequent terms/years.

Please alert the instructor if you become aware of intellectual property belonging to others (past or present) circulating, either through the student body or online. In many cases, instructors might be happy to allow distribution of certain materials. However, doing so without expressed permission is considered a violation of intellectual property rights.


University Policies:

1. Grievance: A student who believes that a decision affecting some aspect of his/her university life has been unfair or unreasonable may have grounds for initiating a grievance. Read Policy 70, Student Petitions and Grievances, Section 4.

2. Discipline: A student is expected to know what constitutes academic integrity to avoid committing academic offenses [Check www.uwaterloo.ca/academicintegrity/ for more information]. A student who is unsure whether an action constitutes an offense, or who needs help in learning how to avoid offenses (e.g., plagiarism, cheating) should seek guidance from the course professor, academic advisor, or the undergraduate associate dean. For information on categories of offenses and types of penalties, students should refer to Policy 71, Student Discipline. For typical penalties check Guidelines for the Assessment of Penalties, http://www.adm.uwaterloo.ca/infosec/guidelines/penaltyguidelines.htm.

3. Appeals: A decision made or penalty imposed under Policy 70, Student Petitions and Grievances (other than a petition) or Policy 71, Student Discipline may be appealed if there is a ground. A student who believes he/she has a ground for an appeal should refer to Policy 72, Student Appeals.