BMAN30071 SHARE PRICES AND ACCOUNTING INFORMATION 2020
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BMAN30071
SHARE PRICES AND ACCOUNTING INFORMATION
14 January 2020
Question 1
A researcher has decided to run the following two return-earnings regression models:
(1) = α 0+ β0 + ε 1t
(2) = α 1+ β1 + β2Dt 〉 + ε2t
where Dt = 1 if Xt - Xt -1 > 0 and Dt = 0 if Xt - Xt -1 共 0
Estimating regression models (1) and (2) for a sample of 833 UK firm-year observations yields the following two regression outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT: REGRESSION MODEL (1)
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
0.1137
0.0129
0.0117
0.3689
833
Coefficients Standard Error T-Statistic P- Value
Intercept (Xt-Xt-1)/Pt-1 |
-0. 1514 0.4884 |
0.0128 0.1480 |
- 11.8 3.3 |
0.0000 0.0010 |
SUMMARY OUTPUT: REGRESSION MODEL (2)
Regression Statistics |
|
Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations |
0.2175 0.0473 0.0450 0.3627 833 |
Coefficients Standard Error T-Statistic P- Value
Intercept -0.0976 0.0160 -6. 1 0.0000
(Xt-Xt-1)/Pt-1 2.1706 0.3402 6.4 0.0000
Dt x (Xt-Xt-1)/Pt-1 -2.3159 0.4233 -5.5 0.0000
Required
i. Illustrate how the return-earnings-change specification behind regression model (1) can be derived formally from the Simple Earnings Capitalisation Model and briefly comment on your derivation . [6 marks]
ii. What are the ideas and assumptions behind regression model (1)? What does the
earnings change variable in (1) proxy for? What are your predictions for α0 and β0? [14 marks]
iii. Regression model (2) is a modified version of regression model (1). What is the difference between the two regression models? What is the idea behind this modification? What are your predictions for α 1, β 1 and β2? [10 marks]
iv. Interpret and compare the regression results in the above two summary outputs. Was the modification in regression model (2) a success? How do the above regression results compare with the findings in previous return-earnings studies as reviewed, for example, in Lev (1989)? [10 marks]
v. Describe two other possible modifications to regression model (1) that an accounting researcher might want to experiment with. Explain the motivation behind each modification. [10 marks]
Total 50 marks
Question 2
The following regression model (5) and Table 3 are extracted from Gelb and Zarowin (2002), ‘Corporate disclosure policy and the informativeness of stock prices’, Review of Accounting Studies, 7: 33–52:
3 3
(5) Rt = a + b0Et + bT Et +T + cT Rt +T + d1E / Pt 1+ d2AGt + d3LVALt + zt
T =1 T =1
Table 3.
Results of OLS regression tests of the effect of firm’s disclosure on the relationship between current stock price changes and future earnings changes.*
Independent Variables |
Dependent Variable: |
Current Price Change |
||
Firms Appearing in the Top Quartile of Their AIMR Ratings for the Past Two Years |
Firms Appearing in the Bottom Quartile of Their AIMR Ratings for the Past Two Years |
|||
Intercept |
0.139 |
0.403 |
0.131 |
0.214 |
Current ERC |
(0.001) 0.113 |
(0.001) 0.031 |
(0.001) 0.075 |
(0.021) 0.079 |
Future ERC |
(0.002) 0.563 |
(0.317) 0.593 |
(0.001) –0.026 |
(0.001) 0.005 |
Future Price Change |
(0.001) –0.037 |
(0.001) –0.037 |
(0.567) –0.033 |
(0.903) –0.053 |
Earnings-Price Ratio |
(0.660) |
(0.675) 0.141 |
(0.746) |
(0.593) 0.602 |
Asset Growth |
|
(0.630) 0.157 |
|
(0.001) 0.126 |
Market Capitalisation |
|
(0.022) –0.036 |
|
(0.034) –0.018 |
|
|
(0.001) |
|
(0. 131) |
Observations R2 |
441 0.167 |
441 0.196 |
365 0.043 |
364 0.110 |
* Numbers in parentheses indicate p-values.
Required
i. What is the research question in Gelb and Zarowin? What is the intuition behind this research question? [8 marks]
ii. Explain why Gelb and Zarowin include three years of future earnings changes in regression model (5). What is the reason for adding future returns, earnings yield and asset growth to regression model (5)? [14 marks]
iii. How do the empirical results in the four columns of Table 3 relate to the regression model in (5)? What are the estimates of primary interest in regression model (5) and Table 3? What conclusion do you draw from these estimates? [14 marks]
iv. Compare the concepts of (a) share price anticipation of earnings, and (b) earnings conservatism as defined in Basu (1997) . [14 marks]
Total 50 marks
Question 3
Research has focused on the book value of equity as an explanatory variable in accounting-based valuation models.
i. Describe, compare and assess two models in which valuation depends on the book value of equity. [35 marks]
ii. How do the two models compare with the Simple Earnings Capitalisation Model? [10 marks]
iii. Are the two models appropriate models for valuing loss firms? [5 marks]
Total 50 marks
Question 4
In 2013 the EU announced that it was making Interim Management Statements (IMSs) voluntary again arguing that IMSs are redundant as they are unlikely to contain any price relevant information not already required by the Market Abuse Directive.
i. Explain the research design employed in Schleicher & Walker (2015) to test the argument that mandatory IMSs are redundant. [25 marks]
ii. What are the empirical findings in Schleicher & Walker (2015)? [15 marks]
iii. On the 17th August 2018 US President Donald Trump announced via Twitter that he had asked the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate whether the US should move from quarterly reporting to semi-annual reporting. In your view should the SEC during that investigation consider the empirical evidence in Schleicher and Walker (2015)? Why or why not? [10 marks]
Total 50 marks
2023-01-11