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AF3627 Global Economic Environment

Semester 1, 2022/2023

Data Science Project

Instructions:

1.   The project report is for 30 marks (15% of the overall subject grade). Please complete Sections 1-6 as stated in the Project Requirements in a MS Word document file

2.   Your report should not exceed 5 pages (12pt. font; single line spacing; excluding the  the reference page). The part ofyour report beyond the page limit will not be marked.

3.   You must submit your work through the Turnitin Project Report Submission link under Assessments at the Course Website. Your submission will not be accepted otherwise.

4.   Submission deadline is 9:00pm HKT, 12th November 2022. You can submit this project only once (i.e., re-submission is NOT allowed). Late submission will incur an incremental penalty of 20% deduction of the marks obtained for each 24 hours of delay in submission.

5.   This is an individual assessment. You must honor the integrity of the assignment by doing your own work. Any violation will result in an automatic FAIL grade.

6.   Remember to save the Turnitin submission ID generated after a successful submission, as proof of your submission.

7.   Please send your dataset to your tutor by email (DO NOT email your Project Report) before the deadline.

Project Requirements

Your project report should contain all the following SIX sections:

Section 1. Choose ONE of the following series from WDI as the dependent variable:

 Exports of goods and services (BoP, current US$)

Exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP

 Imports of goods and services (BoP, current US$)

Imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP

 Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$)

 Foreign direct investment, net inflows as a percentage of GDP

 Foreign direct investment, net outflows (BoP, current US$)

 Foreign direct investment, net outflows as a percentage of GDP

 Current account balance (BoP, current US$)

 Current account balance as a percentage of GDP

Section 2. Choose ANY FOUR series (EXCEPT the ones in Section 1 above) from WDI as independent variables.

Section 3. Collect data on the dependent and independent variables of at least 15 countries  over a sample period of 10 years, i.e. your sample should have at least 150 country-year      observations. In a table in the REPORT, provide a list of the sample countries, the sample   period, the sample mean and the sample standard deviation for each of the five variables. (3 marks)

Section 4. Set a hypothesis for the effect of each independent variable on the dependent       variable (i.e., four hypotheses). You need to provide relevant explanations/theories to justify each hypothesis. Use of any external source for justification should be cited. ( 16 marks)

Section 5. Using the data collected, estimate a fixed-effect model by using Excel (remember to adjust all variables through each individual country mean correction). Report the main      findings in a table. (5 marks)

Section 6. Based on the findings, test for the hypotheses one by one. For each hypothesis, explain why it is either supported or not supported by the findings. (6 marks)